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Pricing Inefficiencies in Private Real Estate Markets Using Total Return Swaps

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  • Colin Lizieri
  • Gianluca Marcato
  • Paul Ogden
  • Andrew Baum

Abstract

Efficient markets should guarantee the existence of zero spreads for total return swaps. However, real estate markets have recorded values that are significantly different from zero in both directions. Possible explanations might suggest non-rational behaviour by inexperienced market players or unusual features of the underlying asset market. We find that institutional characteristics in the underlying market lead to market inefficiencies and, hence, to the creation of a rational trading window with upper and lower bounds within which transactions do not offer arbitrage opportunities. Given the existence of this rational trading window, we also argue that the observed spreads can substantially be explained by trading imbalances due to the limited liquidity of a newly formed market and/or to the effect of market sentiment, complementing explanations based on the lag between underlying market returns and index returns. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Lizieri & Gianluca Marcato & Paul Ogden & Andrew Baum, 2012. "Pricing Inefficiencies in Private Real Estate Markets Using Total Return Swaps," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 774-803, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:3:p:774-803
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-010-9268-x
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    2. Pierre-Arnaud Drouhin & Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2016. "Forward Curve Risk Factors Analysis in the UK Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 494-526, November.
    3. Wen-Yuan Lin & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(2), pages 107-126, March.
    4. Sebastian, Steffen P. & Steininger, Bertram I., 2021. "Real estate ETNs in strategic asset allocation," Working Paper Series 21/8, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    5. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "A 30-Year Perspective on Property Derivatives: What Can Be Done to Tame Property Price Risk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 121-145, Fall.
    6. Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    7. Drouhin, Pierre-Arnaud, 2012. "Caractéristiques statistiques et dynamique de prix des produits dérivés immobiliers," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/10918 edited by Batsch, Laurent.
    8. Gianluca Marcato & Anupam Nanda, 2022. "Asymmetric Patterns of Demand-Supply Mismatch in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 440-472, April.

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