IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tsa/wpaper/0084mss.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Trading Imbalance a Better Explanatory Factor in the Volatility Process? Intraday and Daily Evidence from E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures and Information-Based Hypotheses

Author

Listed:
  • An-Sing Chen

    (National Chung Cheng University, Taiwan)

  • Hui-Jyuan Gao

    (National Chung Cheng University, Taiwan)

  • Mark Leung

    (The University of Texas at San Antonio)

Abstract

This paper examines trading imbalance as well as traditional trading variables in the volume-volatility relation in futures market. Unlike the majority of studies which utilize daily data, our empirical investigation compares an array of intraday frequencies (from five minutes to one hour) with daily interval. The primary analysis is conducted through a series of GARCH tests and the findings are then confirmed by a set of two-stage least square regressions. Since this paper adopts an information-based framework to explain the volume-volatility relation, unexpected trading variables are used to proxy for new market information. Results indicate that different trading imbalance metrics are useful and more significant than traditional trading variables in explaining the volatility relation for all daily and intraday intervals. Empirical findings support the existence of asymmetric information hypothesis at all intervals. On the other hand, mixture of distributions and difference in opinion hypotheses are validated in only some intraday intervals. Moreover, not only are the conclusions from daily observations not the same as the ones from intraday counterparts but also there are differences in the results between longer and shorter intraday intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • An-Sing Chen & Hui-Jyuan Gao & Mark Leung, 2008. "Is Trading Imbalance a Better Explanatory Factor in the Volatility Process? Intraday and Daily Evidence from E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures and Information-Based Hypotheses," Working Papers 0039, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0084mss
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://interim.business.utsa.edu/wps/MSS/0039MSS-045-2008.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James C. Luu & Martin Martens, 2003. "Testing the mixture‐of‐distributions hypothesis using “realized” volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 661-679, July.
    2. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-321, March.
    3. Toshiaki Watanabe, 2001. "Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth: evidence from the Japanese stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 651-658.
    4. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 21-39, March.
    5. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    6. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    7. Robert T. Daigler & Marilyn K. Wiley, 1999. "The Impact of Trader Type on the Futures Volatility‐Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2297-2316, December.
    8. Kurov, Alexander & Lasser, Dennis J., 2004. "Price Dynamics in the Regular and E-Mini Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 365-384, June.
    9. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
    10. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    11. Paul Berhanu Girma & Mbodja Mougoué, 2002. "An empirical examination of the relation between futures spreads volatility, volume, and open interest," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(11), pages 1083-1102, November.
    12. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. "Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-2034, December.
    13. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
    14. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    15. Wu, Chunchi & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2000. "Return Volatility, Trading Imbalance and the Information Content of Volume," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 131-153, March.
    16. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    17. Arago, Vicent & Nieto, Luisa, 2005. "Heteroskedasticity in the returns of the main world stock exchange indices: volume versus GARCH effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 271-284, July.
    18. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    19. Harris, Lawrence, 1987. "Transaction Data Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 127-141, June.
    20. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    21. Kalev, Petko S. & Liu, Wai-Man & Pham, Peter K. & Jarnecic, Elvis, 2004. "Public information arrival and volatility of intraday stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1441-1467, June.
    22. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 269-283, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karan Bhanot & Donald Lien & Margot Quijano, 2008. "Will Pulling Out the Rug Help? Uncertainty about Fannie and Freddie’s Federal Guarantee and the Cost of the Subsidy," Working Papers 0035, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    2. Jinliang Li, 2016. "When noise trading fades, volatility rises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 475-512, October.
    3. Kao, Erin H. & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2012. "Intraday trading activities and volatility in round-the-clock futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 195-209.
    4. Koubaa, Yosra & Slim, Skander, 2019. "The relationship between trading activity and stock market volatility: Does the volume threshold matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 168-184.
    5. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Rzayev, Khaladdin & Ibikunle, Gbenga, 2019. "A state-space modeling of the information content of trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Slim, Skander & Dahmene, Meriam, 2016. "Asymmetric information, volatility components and the volume–volatility relationship for the CAC40 stocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 70-84.
    8. Mahmoud Qadan & David Y. Aharon, 2019. "The length of the trading day and trading volume," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 137-156, June.
    9. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    10. Ming-Hsien Chen & Vivian Tai, 2014. "The price discovery of day trading activities in futures market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 217-239, July.
    11. Haugom, Erik & Ray, Rina, 2017. "Heterogeneous traders, liquidity, and volatility in crude oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 36-49.
    12. Chris Downing & Frank X. Zhang, 2002. "Trading activity and price volatility in the municipal bond market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Kumar, Brajesh & Singh, Priyanka & Pandey, Ajay, 2009. "The Dynamic Relationship between Price and Trading Volume:Evidence from Indian Stock Market," IIMA Working Papers WP2009-12-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    14. Brajesh Kumar, 2010. "The Dynamic Relationship between Price and Trading Volume: Evidence from Indian Stock Market," Working Papers id:2379, eSocialSciences.
    15. Li Jiang & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1997. "Trading Activity, Quoted Liquidity, and Stock Volatility," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 199-227, September.
    16. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Liquidity, surprise volume and return premia in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-104.
    17. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    18. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    19. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    20. Tribhuvan N. Puri & George C. Philippatos, 2008. "Asymmetric Volume‐Return Relation and Concentrated Trading in LIFFE Futures," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(3), pages 528-563, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures markets; price volatility; trading imbalance; number and volume of trades; asymmetric information; difference in opinion; mixture of distributions; GARCH and persistence effect.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0084mss. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wendy Frost (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbutsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.