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Conditional Volatility of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: A Pre- and Post-1993 Comparison

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  • Benjamas Jirasakuldech
  • Robert Campbell
  • Riza Emekter

Abstract

We examine the dynamic behavior of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust (EREIT) volatility in a GARCH context 1972–2006 using monthly EREIT returns, and comparing volatility performance for “early” Equity REITs 1972–1992 with that of “modern” EREITs 1993–2006. Consistent with findings for conventional firms, we find that EREIT conditional volatility is time-varying, persistent, and predictable. There is a positive relationship between expected return and expected risk in EREIT stocks pre-1993, but the relationship disappears after 1993. We find no evidence that negative shocks affect EREIT volatility differently from positive ones in either time period. Different from reported results for conventional firms, we find that changes in the conditional volatility of fundamental macroeconomic variables have strong explanatory value for future changes in EREIT volatility. Finally, comparing EREIT volatility performance with volatility in the Russell 2000 Index, a proxy for small stocks, we find that EREIT volatility behaves differently from that of small stocks in many respects, indicating that risks in the small stock index cannot effectively proxy for risks in the EREIT market. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & Riza Emekter, 2009. "Conditional Volatility of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: A Pre- and Post-1993 Comparison," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 137-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:2:p:137-154
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9079-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ming-Chu Chiang & Tien Foo Sing & I-Chun Tsai, 2017. "Spillover Risks in REITs and other Asset Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 579-604, May.
    2. James Chong & Alexandra Krystalogianni & Simon Stevenson, "undated". "Dynamic Correlations across REIT Sub-Sectors," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2011-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
    4. James Chong & Alexandra Krystalogianni & Simon Stevenson, 2012. "Dynamic correlations between REIT sub-sectors and the implications for diversification," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1089-1109, July.
    5. Faten Ben Bouheni & Manish Tewari, 2023. "Common risk factors and risk–return trade-off for REITs and treasuries," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 374-395, September.
    6. Zhou, Jian, 2016. "A high-frequency analysis of the interactions between REIT return and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-108.
    7. Liang Peng & Rainer Schulz, 2013. "Does the Diversification Potential of Securitized Real Estate Vary Over Time and Should Investors Care?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 310-340, August.
    8. Tumellano Sebehela, 2016. "Portfolio Formation Memory," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    10. Ming-Chi Chen & Chi-Lu Peng & So-De Shyu & Jhih-Hong Zeng, 2012. "Market States and the Effect on Equity REIT Returns due to Changes in Monetary Policy Stance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 364-382, August.
    11. Piao, Xiaorui & Mei, Bin & Xue, Yuan, 2016. "Comparing the financial performance of timber REITs and other REITs," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-121.
    12. Simon Stevenson, 2016. "Macro-Economic and Financial Determinants of Comovement across Global Real Estate Security Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 38(4), pages 595-624.
    13. Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    14. Metin Ilbasmis & Marc Gronwald & Yuan Zhao, 2018. "Diversification Power of Real Estate Market Securities: The Role of Financial Crisis and Dividend Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7015, CESifo.
    15. Brad Case & Massimo Guidolin & Yildiray Yildirim, 2014. "Markov Switching Dynamics in REIT Returns: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence on Forecasting Performance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 279-342, June.
    16. Chioma Okoro & Marie Mangwi Ayaba, 2023. "Research Trends and Directions on Real Estate Investment Trusts’ Performance Risks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate; Real estate investment trusts; REITs; GARCH; Price volatility; Conditional volatility; Volatility persistence; Macroeconomic volatility; C14; C22; C32; F31; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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