IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v39y2009i3p359-383.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate

Author

Listed:
  • David Ling
  • Gianluca Marcato
  • Pat McAllister

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, 'return chasing' behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a 'price pressure' effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister, 2009. "Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 359-383, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:39:y:2009:i:3:p:359-383
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-009-9182-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-009-9182-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-009-9182-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2003. "The Dynamics of REIT Capital Flows and Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 405-434, September.
    2. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2003. "Index Funds and Stock Market Growth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    4. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    5. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    6. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2006. "Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 409-433, June.
    7. Cauley, Stephen Day & Pavlov, Andrey D, 2002. "Rational Delays: The Case of Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 143-165, Jan.-Marc.
    8. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan H. Mingelgrin, 2001. "The High‐Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, June.
    9. Jeffrey Fisher & David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Institutional Capital Flows and Return Dynamics in Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 85-116, March.
    10. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    11. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2005. "Investor Rationality: Evidence from U.K. Property Capitalization Rates," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 299-322, June.
    12. Mosebach, Michael & Najand, Mohammad, 1999. "Are the Structural Changes in Mutual Funds Investing Driving the U.S. Stock Market to Its Current Levels?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 317-329, Fall.
    13. Franklin Edwards & Xin Zhang, 1998. "Mutual Funds and Stock and Bond Market Stability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 257-282, June.
    14. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    16. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2007-215 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. David Ling & Jeffrey Fisher & A. Naranjo & Jeffrey Fisher & Andy Naranjo, 2007. "Commercial Real Estate Return Cycles: Do Capital Flows Matter?," ERES eres2007_215, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    18. Sivitanidou, Rena & Sivitanides, Petros, 1999. "Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 297-322, May.
    19. Michael Mosebach & Mohammad Najand, 1999. "Are The Structural Changes In Mutual Funds Investing Driving The U.S. Stock Market To Its Current Levels?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 317-329, September.
    20. Cha, Heung-Joo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2001. "The Market Demand Curve for Common Stocks: Evidence from Equity Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 195-220, June.
    21. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    22. Franklin Fant, L., 1999. "Investment behavior of mutual fund shareholders: The evidence from aggregate fund flows," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 391-402, November.
    23. Debbie Gruenstein & Paul Kleiman & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "Market returns and mutual fund flows," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jul), pages 33-52.
    24. Eric Ghysels & Alberto Plazzi & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "Valuation in US Commercial Real Estate," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(3), pages 472-497, June.
    25. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    26. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2000. "The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-67, January.
    27. Peter Fortune, 1998. "Mutual funds, part II: fund flows and security returns," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    28. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chris Brooks & Matthew Lamport & Kesseven Padachi & Vinesh Sannassee & Keshav Seetah & Boopen Seetanah, 2017. "The Impact of Foreign Real Estate Investment on Land Prices: Evidence from Mauritius," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 131-146, November.
    2. Kieran Farrelly & Simon Stevenson, 2016. "Performance drivers of private real estate funds," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 214-235, July.
    3. Devaney, Steven & Livingstone, Nicola & McAllister, Pat & Nanda, Anupam, 2019. "Capitalization rates and transaction activity in international office markets: A global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Liquidity Pricing of Illiquid Assets," ERES eres2018_215, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Vassilios Babalos & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2021. "Equity fund flows and stock market returns in the USA before and after the global financial crisis: a VAR-GARCH-in-mean analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 539-555, February.
    6. Andrew Ang & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Mark M. Westerfield, 2014. "Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2737-2761, November.
    7. Zifeng Feng, 2022. "How Does Local Economy Affect Commercial Property Performance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 361-383, October.
    8. Qiulin Ke & Karen Sieracki, 2018. "Exploring sentiment-driven trading behavior of different types of investors in London office market," ERES eres2018_112, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Steven Devaney & Pat McAllister & Anupam Nanda, 2017. "Determinants of transaction activity in commercial real estate markets: evidence from European and Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 251-268, October.
    10. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    11. David H. Downs & Steffen Sebastian & Christian Weistroffer & René-Ojas Woltering, 2016. "Real Estate Fund Flows and the Flow-Performance Relationship," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 347-382, May.
    12. Gianluca Marcato & Anupam Nanda, 2022. "Asymmetric Patterns of Demand-Supply Mismatch in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 440-472, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vassilios Babalos & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2021. "Equity fund flows and stock market returns in the USA before and after the global financial crisis: a VAR-GARCH-in-mean analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 539-555, February.
    2. Jeffrey Fisher & David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Institutional Capital Flows and Return Dynamics in Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 85-116, March.
    3. Watson, John & Wickramanayake, J., 2012. "The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 451-472.
    4. P.K. Mishra, 2011. "Dynamics of the Relationship between Mutual Funds Investment Flow and Stock Market Returns in India," Vision, , vol. 15(1), pages 31-40, March.
    5. Devaney, Steven & Livingstone, Nicola & McAllister, Pat & Nanda, Anupam, 2019. "Capitalization rates and transaction activity in international office markets: A global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    6. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    7. Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2017. "Trading of foreign investors and stock returns in an emerging market - Evidence from Vietnam," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 88-93.
    8. David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2006. "Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 409-433, June.
    9. Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi & Braverman, Oded, 2005. "The (Bad?) Timing of Mutual Fund Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 5243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Jaebeom Kim & Jung-Min Kim, 2020. "Stock returns and mutual fund flows in the korean financial markets: a system approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(33), pages 3588-3599, June.
    11. Fiza Qureshi & Ali M. Kutan & Habib Hussain Khan & Saba Qureshi, 2019. "Equity fund flows, market returns, and market risk: evidence from China," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(1), pages 48-71, March.
    12. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ghafoor, Abdul & Hussain Khan, Habib & Qureshi, Zeeshan, 2019. "Dynamics of mutual funds and stock markets in Asian developing economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Oh, Natalie Y. & Parwada, Jerry T., 2007. "Relations between mutual fund flows and stock market returns in Korea," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 140-151, April.
    14. Kim, Ho-Yong & Kwon, Okyu & Oh, Gabjin, 2016. "A causality between fund performance and stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 439-450.
    15. Qiulin Ke & Karen Sieracki, 2018. "Exploring sentiment-driven trading behavior of different types of investors in London office market," ERES eres2018_112, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    16. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    17. Ciner, Cetin & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K., 2008. "Information asymmetry, speculation and foreign trading activity: Emerging market evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 664-680, September.
    18. Pantisa Pavabutr & Hong Yan, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Portfolio Flows on Emerging Market Volatility: Evidence from Thailand," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 345-368, December.
    19. Kim, Jaemin & Landi, James & Yoo, Sean Sehyun, 2009. "Inter-temporal examination of the trading activities of foreign investors in the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 243-256, April.
    20. Wongchoti, Udomsak & Wu, Fei & Young, Martin, 2009. "Buy and sell dynamics following high market returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 12-20, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:39:y:2009:i:3:p:359-383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.