IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v49y2013i1p250-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market

Author

Listed:
  • Alizadeh, Amir H.

Abstract

This paper investigates the price volatility and trading volume relationship in the forward freight agreement (FFA) market for dry bulk ships over the period 2007–2011. It is found that FFA price changes have a positive impact on trading volume, suggesting a momentum effect as higher capital gains encourage more transactions. There is also evidence of a contemporaneous and positive relation between trading volume and volatility, which is in line with evidence from financial markets and the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis. However, increases in price volatility lead to lower future trading activities in the FFA market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alizadeh, Amir H., 2013. "Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 250-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:49:y:2013:i:1:p:250-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2012.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554512000762
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tre.2012.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "Cross-Security Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 39-46, March.
    5. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-321, March.
    6. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-330, April.
    7. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    8. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 21-39, March.
    9. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "An empirical examination of information, differences of opinion, and trading activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, January.
    10. Elena Kalotychou & Sotiris Staikouras, 2006. "Volatility and trading activity in Short Sterling futures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 997-1005.
    11. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    12. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan H. Mingelgrin, 2001. "The High‐Volume Return Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 877-919, June.
    13. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Amir H. Alizadeh-M, 2002. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Risk Premiums in Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Markets," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 267-304, May.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K, 1992. "Stock Price Dynamics and Firm Size: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1985-1997, December.
    15. Koekebakker, Steen & Adland, Roar & Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2007. "Pricing freight rate options," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 535-548, September.
    16. Timotheos Angelidis & George Skiadopoulos, 2008. "Measuring The Market Risk Of Freight Rates: A Value-At-Risk Approach," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 447-469.
    17. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    18. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Visvikis, Ilias D. & Batchelor, Roy A., 2004. "Over-the-counter forward contracts and spot price volatility in shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 273-296, July.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    20. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    21. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
    22. Silvapulle, Param & Choi, Jong-Seo, 1999. "Testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price-volume relation: Korean evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-76.
    23. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    24. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    25. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Ilias D. Visvikis, 2006. "Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 233-255, July.
    26. Steen Koekebakker * & Roar Os Ådland, 2004. "Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 319-335, October.
    27. Manolis Kavussanos, 1997. "The dynamics of time-varying volatilities in different size second-hand ship prices of the dry-cargo sector," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 433-443.
    28. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
    29. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    30. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    31. Saatcioglu, Kemal & Starks, Laura T., 1998. "The stock price-volume relationship in emerging stock markets: the case of Latin America," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-225, June.
    32. A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 1998. "Volume and price relationships: Hypotheses and testing for agricultural futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 53-72, February.
    33. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    34. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    35. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    36. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. "Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-181, March.
    37. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    38. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2004. "Market interactions in returns and volatilities between spot and forward shipping freight markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 2015-2049, August.
    39. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    40. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
    41. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    42. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2000. "Constant vs. time-varying hedge ratios and hedging efficiency in the BIFFEX market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 229-248, December.
    43. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lim, Kian Guan & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Yap, Nelson, 2019. "Understanding the fundamentals of freight markets volatility," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Jingbo Yin & Meifeng Luo & Lixian Fan, 2017. "Dynamics and interactions between spot and forward freights in the dry bulk shipping market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 271-288, February.
    3. Merkert, Rico & Swidan, Hassan, 2019. "Flying with(out) a safety net: Financial hedging in the airline industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 206-219.
    4. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    5. Sel, Burakhan & Minner, Stefan, 2022. "A hedging policy for seaborne forward freight markets based on probabilistic forecasts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
    7. Regli, Frederik & Adland, Roar, 2019. "Crude oil contango arbitrage and the floating storage decision," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 100-118.
    8. Lin, Arthur J. & Chang, Hai Yen & Hsiao, Jung Lieh, 2019. "Does the Baltic Dry Index drive volatility spillovers in the commodities, currency, or stock markets?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 265-283.
    9. Yuting Gong & Xueqin Wang & Mo Zhu & Ying‐En Ge & Wenming Shi, 2023. "Maximum utility portfolio construction in the forward freight agreement markets: Evidence from a multivariate skewed t copula," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 69-89, January.
    10. Hofmann, Erik & Solakivi, Tomi & Töyli, Juuso & Zinn, Martin, 2018. "Oil price shocks and the financial performance patterns of logistics service providers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 290-306.
    11. Alexandridis, G. & Sahoo, S. & Visvikis, I., 2017. "Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets: New evidence from freight derivatives," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 82-104.
    12. Adland, Roar & Alizadeh, Amir H., 2018. "Explaining price differences between physical and derivative freight contracts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-33.
    13. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
    14. Itoh, Ryo & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "Shipping alliances under an unexpected shock: Effects on market volatility and social welfare," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    15. Pouliasis, Panos K. & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "Shipping equity risk behavior and portfolio management," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 178-200.
    16. Zhong, Huiling & Zhang, Fa & Gu, Yimiao, 2021. "A Stackelberg game based two-stage framework to make decisions of freight rate for container shipping lines in the emerging blockchain-based market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    17. Sun, Xiaolin & Haralambides, Hercules & Liu, Hailong, 2019. "Dynamic spillover effects among derivative markets in tanker shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 384-409.
    18. Ioannis Karaoulanis & Theodore Pelagidis, 2021. "Panamax markets behaviour: explaining volatility and expectations," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, December.
    19. Pelagidis, Theodore & Karaoulanis, Ioannis, 2021. "Capesize markets behavior: Explaining volatility and expectations," MPRA Paper 107034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Amir Alizadeh & Konstantina Kappou & Dimitris Tsouknidis & Ilias Visvikis, 2014. "Liquidity Risk Premia in the International Shipping Derivatives Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    21. Wanke, Peter & Chen, Zhongfei & Dong, Qichen & Antunes, Jorge, 2021. "Transportation Sustainability, Macroeconomics, and Endogeneity in China: A Hybrid Neural-Markowitz-Variable Reduction Approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    22. Mhd Ruslan, Siti Marsila & Mokhtar, Kasypi, 2021. "Stock market volatility on shipping stock prices: GARCH models approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    23. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Kappou, Konstantina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris & Visvikis, Ilias, 2015. "Liquidity effects and FFA returns in the international shipping derivatives market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 58-75.
    24. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 134-149.
    2. Sarika Mahajan & Balwinder Singh, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    5. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    6. Anirut Pisedtasalasai & Abeyratna Gunasekarage, 2007. "Causal and Dynamic Relationships among Stock Returns, Return Volatility and Trading Volume: Evidence from Emerging markets in South-East Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 277-297, December.
    7. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2002. "Return-volume dynamics in UK futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 707-713.
    8. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver M., 2002. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume: Domestic and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 51-78, January.
    9. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    10. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between stock return, trading volume, and volatility in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: does the US subprime crisis matter?," MPRA Paper 73791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ming-Hsien Chen & Vivian Tai, 2014. "The price discovery of day trading activities in futures market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 217-239, July.
    13. Cetin Ciner, 2003. "Dynamic Linkages Between Trading Volume and Price Movements: Evidence for Small Firm Stocks," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, Spring.
    14. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Mungai, Ann Nduati, 2022. "Stock returns, trading volume, and volatility: The case of African stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    16. Holmes, Phil & Rougier, Jonathan, 2005. "Trading volume and contract rollover in futures contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-338, March.
    17. Kausik Chaudhuri & Alok Kumar, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Model for Indian Stock Price and Volume," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(3), pages 239-257, December.
    18. Cathy W.S. Chen & Mike K.P. So & Thomas C. Chiang, 2016. "Evidence of Stock Returns and Abnormal Trading Volume: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 96-124, March.
    19. Marcus Alexander Ong, 2015. "An information theoretic analysis of stock returns, volatility and trading volumes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(36), pages 3891-3906, August.
    20. Chia-Hao Lee & Pei-I Chou, 2012. "Trading Activity and Financial Market Integration," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 589-616, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:49:y:2013:i:1:p:250-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.