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Rational Delays: The Case of Real Estate

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  • Cauley, Stephen Day
  • Pavlov, Andrey D

Abstract

Real estate markets, for both commercial real estate and single family homes, typically respond to a large negative demand shock with a period during which the volume of transactions and liquidity of real estate declines. Explanations for these periods have focused on overly optimistic owners, imperfections in real estate markets and/or minimum down payment requirements. These are important characteristics of real estate markets, but they do not provide a satisfying explanation for the long-term declines in the number of transactions and liquidity of real estate that frequently follow negative demand shocks. This paper presents estimates, for a specific real estate market (Los Angeles single family dwellings), of the option-like value of an owner's interest in a property. Our estimates imply that when an owner has little or negative equity, the value of waiting to sell is likely to exceed the net carrying cost. Consequently, the option value of a potential seller's interest may eliminate the possibility of an otherwise mutually advantageous transaction. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Cauley, Stephen Day & Pavlov, Andrey D, 2002. "Rational Delays: The Case of Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 143-165, Jan.-Marc.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:24:y:2002:i:1-2:p:143-65
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister, 2009. "Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 359-383, October.
    2. Robert Edelstein & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Short-Term Buyers and Housing Market Dynamics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 654-689, November.
    3. Marcelo Cajias & Philipp Freudenreich & Anna Freudenreich & Wolfgang Schäfers, 2020. "Liquidity and prices: a cluster analysis of the German residential real estate market," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(7), pages 1021-1056, August.
    4. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    5. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    6. Devaney, Steven & Livingstone, Nicola & McAllister, Pat & Nanda, Anupam, 2019. "Capitalization rates and transaction activity in international office markets: A global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.
    8. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2020. "Detecting Possible Reduction of the Housing Bubble in Korea for Different Residential Types and Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, February.
    9. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "A Model of Time‐on‐Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 813-843, December.
    10. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
    12. Wang, Han & Wu, Xingyi & Wu, Di & Nie, Xin, 2019. "Will land development time restriction reduce land price? The perspective of American call options," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-83.
    13. Stephen Cauley & Andrey Pavlov & Eduardo Schwartz, 2007. "Homeownership as a Constraint on Asset Allocation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 283-311, April.
    14. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    15. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "Real Estate Returns and Risk with Heterogeneous Investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 753-776, December.
    16. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
    17. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
    18. Gang‐Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Tien Foo Sing & Xiaoyu Zhang, 2022. "Risk aversion and urban land development options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 767-788, September.

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