IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/9894.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investor Rationality: Evidence from UK Property Capitalization Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Bryan D. MacGregor

Abstract

Recent analyses have suggested the irrationality of investors in Australian and U.S. office properties. More specifically, investors have failed to raise capitalization rates sufficiently at rental cyclical peaks to account for the obvious mean reversion in real rents and thus have significantly overvalued properties. In this paper we analyze the determination of UK office and retail capitalization rates and provide evidence that these rates reflect rational expectations of mean reversion in future real cash flows. Moreover, these rates are linked to capitalization rates (dividend/price ratio) and expected dividend earnings growth as expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2003. "Investor Rationality: Evidence from UK Property Capitalization Rates," NBER Working Papers 9894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9894
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9894.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. Richard D. Evans, 1990. "A Transfer Function Analysis of Real Estate Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(3), pages 371-380.
    4. Sivitanidou, Rena & Sivitanides, Petros, 1999. "Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 297-322, May.
    5. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "Struggling to Understand the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 1-11, May.
    6. Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 51-67, January.
    7. Hendershott, Patric H, 2000. "Property Asset Bubbles: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 67-81, January.
    8. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
    9. Timothy W. Viezer, 1999. "Econometric Integration of Real Estate's Space and Capital Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
    10. G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1995. "The Capitalization Rate of Commercial Properties and Market Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(5), pages 509-518.
    11. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    12. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    13. Patric H. Hendershott & Colin M. Lizieri & George A. Matysiak, 1999. "The Workings of the London Office Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-387, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Krystalogianni & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2005. "Regime switching in yield structures and real estate investment," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 279-299, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Patric H. Hendershott & Robert J. Hendershott & Charles R. W. Ward, 2003. "Corporate Equity and Commercial Property Market 'Bubbles'," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 993-1009, May.
    3. Daisy J. Huang & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Chung-Yi Tse, 2018. "What Accounts for the Differences in Rent-Price Ratio and Turnover Rate? A Search-and-Matching Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 431-475, October.
    4. Doina Chichernea & Norm Miller & Jeff Fisher & Bob White & Michael Sklarz, 2008. "ACross-Sectional Analysis of CapRates by MSA," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 249-292.
    5. John McDonald & Sofia Dermisi, 2009. "Office Building Capitalization Rates: The Case of Downtown Chicago," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 472-485, November.
    6. Qin XIAO & Randolph TAN GEE KWANG, 2010. "Kalman Filter Estimation of Property Price Bubbles in Seoul," EcoMod2004 330600164, EcoMod.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2002. "Estimation of the Rental Adjustment Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 165-183.
    8. Jun Li & Xiaoli Liang, 2020. "Beyond the Cap Rate: Valuation of Multifamily Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 99-110, February.
    9. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
    10. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2011. "Testing for Periodically Collapsing Rational Speculative Bubbles in U.S. REITs," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 227-241, January.
    11. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    12. Alain Coen & Benoît Lefebvre & Arnaud Simon, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Post-Print hal-01778910, HAL.
    13. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector‐Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 668-686, June.
    14. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    15. Christopher L. Culp & Yoshio Nozawa & Pietro Veronesi, 2014. "Option-Based Credit Spreads," NBER Working Papers 20776, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
    17. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Santi, Caterina, 2021. "Speculative bubbles in present-value models: A Bayesian Markov-switching state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    19. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2010. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous investors and portfolio constraints," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.