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Herding the crowds: how sentiment affects crowdsourced earnings estimates

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  • John Garcia

    (School of Management)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of firm-level investor sentiment derived from Twitter and news media on herding behavior among contributors on Estimize, a leading platform for crowdsourced earnings forecasts. The findings show that sentiment gleaned from tweets and news media content positively influences herding among Estimize contributors. Notably, herding intensifies when Twitter and news sentiment polarities align, while divergent sentiment polarities diminish this herding effect. Additionally, the analysis indicates that firms with investment-grade ratings and those characterized by low valuation uncertainty are particularly prone to sentiment-driven herding. Importantly, positive sentiment is identified as having a more potent influence on herding behavior than negative sentiment. By focusing on Estimize contributors, this study offers insights into how firm-level sentiment cues shape the crowd’s herding behavior, offering new perspectives on how different media sources shape the wisdom of the crowd.

Suggested Citation

  • John Garcia, 2024. "Herding the crowds: how sentiment affects crowdsourced earnings estimates," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 38(3), pages 331-370, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:38:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11408-024-00447-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-024-00447-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Crowdsourced forecasting; Financial analysts; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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