IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v48y2019icp48-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market sentiment and herding in analysts’ stock recommendations

Author

Listed:
  • Chiang, Ming-Ti
  • Lin, Mei-Chen

Abstract

This study examines whether market sentiment affects the herding tendency among analysts. The results indicate that overall analysts tend to herd toward a consensus when issuing recommendations, and this tendency increases with market sentiment. These results are robust with regards to excluding common information and earnings information as well as including reiterations and using a mean consensus measure. Furthermore, the effect of market sentiment on analysts’ herding mainly occurs for recommendations on hard-to-value firms, large firms, as well as firms with high institutional ownership, high book-to-market ratio and low coverage by analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiang, Ming-Ti & Lin, Mei-Chen, 2019. "Market sentiment and herding in analysts’ stock recommendations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 48-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:48-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.01.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940818303048
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2019.01.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou‐Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, September.
    2. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    4. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    5. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    7. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    8. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    9. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    10. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    11. Conrad, Jennifer & Cornell, Bradford & Landsman, Wayne R. & Rountree, Brian R., 2006. "How Do Analyst Recommendations Respond to Major News?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 25-49, March.
    12. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    13. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & McNichols, Maureen & Trueman, Brett, 2006. "Buys, holds, and sells: The distribution of investment banks' stock ratings and the implications for the profitability of analysts' recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 87-117, April.
    14. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2017. "Analysts and sentiment: A causality study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 315-327.
    15. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    16. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, February.
    17. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    18. Prendergast, Canice & Stole, Lars, 1996. "Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1105-1134, December.
    19. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2014. "Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 824-837.
    20. Werner F. M. De Bondt & William P. Forbes*, 1999. "Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 5(2), pages 143-163, July.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Are Some Mutual Fund Managers Better Than Others? Cross‐Sectional Patterns in Behavior and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 875-899, June.
    23. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    24. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, February.
    25. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    26. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    27. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    28. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    29. Wang, Ashley W. & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2009. "Institutional ownership and credit spreads: An information asymmetry perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 597-612, September.
    30. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    31. Clement, Michael B. & Hales, Jeffrey & Xue, Yanfeng, 2011. "Understanding analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' revisions when forecasting earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 279-299, April.
    32. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    33. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    34. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-1698, December.
    35. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    36. Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Elena Ferrer, 2018. "Analysts herding: when does sentiment matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5495-5509, November.
    37. Chakrabarti, Rajesh & Roll, Richard, 1999. "Learning from others, reacting, and market quality1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 153-178, May.
    38. Paul Hribar & John McInnis, 2012. "Investor Sentiment and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 293-307, February.
    39. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    40. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jaideep Singh & Matloob Khushi, 2021. "Feature Learning for Stock Price Prediction Shows a Significant Role of Analyst Rating," Papers 2103.09106, arXiv.org.
    2. John Garcia, 2024. "Herding the crowds: how sentiment affects crowdsourced earnings estimates," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 38(3), pages 331-370, September.
    3. Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei & Ma, Yuyin, 2021. "Herding in Open-end Funds: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Xiong Xiong & Chen Wang & Dehua Shen, 2020. "Market Participation Willingness and Investor’s Herding Behavior: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(3), pages 439-452, September.
    5. del Río, Cristina & Ferrer, Elena & López-Arceiz, Francisco J., 2024. "Analyst optimism and market sentiment: Evidence from European corporate sustainability reporters," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Hou, Jianlei & Zhao, Shangmei & Yang, Haijun, 2020. "Individual analysts, stock return synchronicity and information efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. John Garcia, 2021. "Analyst herding and firm-level investor sentiment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 461-494, December.
    8. Blajer-Gołębiewska, Anna & Honecker, Lukas & Nowak, Sabina, 2024. "Investor sentiment response to COVID-19 outbreak-related news: A sectoral analysis of US firms," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2018. "The impact of aggregate uncertainty on herding in analysts' stock recommendations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 90-105.
    2. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    3. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2017. "Analysts and sentiment: A causality study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 315-327.
    5. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    6. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Mei-Chen Lin, 2020. "When analysts encounter lottery-like stocks: lottery-like stocks and analyst stock recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 327-353, July.
    8. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    9. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    11. Frijns, Bart & Huynh, Thanh D., 2018. "Herding in analysts’ recommendations: The role of media," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Guo, Xu & Gu, Chen & Zebedee, Allan A. & Chiu, Li-ting, 2024. "The effect of institutional herding on stock prices: The differentiating role of credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    13. Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Vasios, Michalis, 2014. "Sell-side analysts’ career concerns during banking stresses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 424-441.
    14. Po-Jung Chen, 2016. "The Effects of Analysts’ Herding on Traders: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 203-227, June.
    15. John Garcia, 2024. "Herding the crowds: how sentiment affects crowdsourced earnings estimates," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 38(3), pages 331-370, September.
    16. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    17. Clarke, Jonathan & Subramanian, Ajay, 2006. "Dynamic forecasting behavior by analysts: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 81-113, April.
    18. Markus Buxbaum & Wolfgang Schultze & Samuel L. Tiras, 2023. "Do analysts’ target prices stabilize the stock market?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 763-816, October.
    19. Durand, Robert B. & Limkriangkrai, Manapon & Fung, Lucia, 2014. "The behavioral basis of sell-side analysts’ herding," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 176-190.
    20. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst; Herding; Stock recommendation; Market sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:48-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.