IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v57y2021i3d10.1007_s11156-021-00967-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Alomari

    (German Jordanian University)

  • Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a

    (Yarmouk University)

  • Ghaith El-Nader

    (Yarmouk University)

  • Ahmad Alkhataybeh

    (Yarmouk University)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of both social and news sentiments indices on the dynamic stock–bond correlation across wavelet-based time-scales over the period 1998–2016. Our results show that the news sentiments namely unemployment, tsunami and sanctions exhibit significant effects during expansion at the shortest time-scale of [2–4] days. These predictors remain significant with reverse signs during recession on the long investment horizon. Yet, the predictability of social media sentiments differs from that of news sentiments with the pattern of reversal in sign also presents for some proxies including windstorm and investment flows. Statistically, our further analysis confirmed the predictability of the sentiments out-of-sample. Excluding the news and social media sentiment effects has also resulted in minimizing the value-at-risk of the (40/60) stock/bond portfolios the most at the investment horizon of [32–64] days during recessions. Our results remain the same after performing some robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:57:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-021-00967-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-021-00967-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-021-00967-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-021-00967-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
    2. Bukovina, Jaroslav, 2016. "Social media big data and capital markets—An overview," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 18-26.
    3. Nina Gotthelf & Matthias W. Uhl, 2019. "News Sentiment: A New Yield Curve Factor," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 31-41, January.
    4. Kothari, S.P. & Lewellen, Jonathan & Warner, Jerold B., 2006. "Stock returns, aggregate earnings surprises, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 537-568, March.
    5. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
    6. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2014. "Timescale-dependent stock market comovement: BRICs vs. developed markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 90-103.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    8. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    9. Perego, Erica R. & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2016. "Macro-economic determinants of European stock and government bond correlations: A tale of two regions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-232.
    10. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    11. Aloui, Chaker & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hkiri, Besma & Hela, Ben Hamida & Khan, Muhammad Asif, 2021. "On the investors' sentiments and the Islamic stock-bond interplay across investments' horizons," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    13. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Evolution of International Stock and Bond Market Integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 12, pages 391-428, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    15. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    16. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    17. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    18. Thomas Chiang & Jiandong Li & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2015. "Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-88, July.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
    20. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zhang, Bing & Gao, Ruzhao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock–bond correlations: Evidence from the US market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-96.
    21. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
    22. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    23. Michela Nardo & Marco Petracco-Giudici & Minás Naltsidis, 2016. "Walking Down Wall Street With A Tablet: A Survey Of Stock Market Predictions Using The Web," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 356-369, April.
    24. Don Galagedera & Elizabeth Maharaj, 2008. "Wavelet timescales and conditional relationship between higher-order systematic co-moments and portfolio returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 201-215.
    25. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    26. Thomas Renault, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03205113, HAL.
    27. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    28. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Pérez-Pico, Ada María & Ribeiro-Navarrete, Belén, 2018. "Does social network sentiment influence the relationship between the S&P 500 and gold returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 57-64.
    29. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2013. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 682-746.
    30. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    31. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2012. "Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-section of Stocks," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 57-87.
    32. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Abdoh, Hussein & Awartani, Basel, 2019. "Connectedness and hedging between gold and Islamic securities: A new evidence from time-frequency domain approaches," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 13-28.
    33. Charlotte Christiansen, 2010. "Decomposing European bond and equity volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 105-122.
    34. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    35. Marco Gallegati & Willi Semmler (ed.), 2014. "Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-07061-2, June.
    36. Gençay, Ramazan & Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon J., 2001. "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796708.
    37. Timm O. Sprenger & Andranik Tumasjan & Philipp G. Sandner & Isabell M. Welpe, 2014. "Tweets and Trades: the Information Content of Stock Microblogs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(5), pages 926-957, November.
    38. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    39. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    40. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Co-movement between equity and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 25-38.
    41. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2010. "The Impact of the Euro on Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 473-502, April.
    42. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2016. "Unveiling heterogeneities of relations between the entire oil–stock interaction and its components across time scales," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 70-80.
    43. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Long-run wavelet-based correlation for financial time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 676-696.
    44. Skintzi, Vasiliki D., 2019. "Determinants of stock-bond market comovement in the Eurozone under model uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-28.
    45. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2019. "The time-frequency co-movement of Asian effective exchange rates: A wavelet approach with daily data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 131-148.
    46. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    47. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    48. Sun, Andrew & Lachanski, Michael & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2016. "Trade the tweet: Social media text mining and sparse matrix factorization for stock market prediction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 272-281.
    49. Sangbae Kim & Francis In, 2010. "Portfolio allocation and the investment horizon: a multiscaling approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 443-453.
    50. Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2007. "Commonality in the time-variation of stock-stock and stock-bond return comovements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 192-218, May.
    51. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    52. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    53. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Huang, Yingbo, 2018. "The role of investor sentiment in the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-139.
    54. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    55. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    56. Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang & Wang, Zijun, 2009. "The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 670-680, April.
    57. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2021. "Examining the effects of news and media sentiments on volatility and correlation: Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-297.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & El-Nader, Ghaith & Alkhataybeh, Ahmad & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2021. "Examining the effects of news and media sentiments on volatility and correlation: Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-297.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    3. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Daniele Ballinari & Simon Behrendt, 2021. "How to gauge investor behavior? A comparison of online investor sentiment measures," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 169-204, June.
    5. Skintzi, Vasiliki D., 2019. "Determinants of stock-bond market comovement in the Eurozone under model uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-28.
    6. Allard, Anne-Florence & Iania, Leonardo & Smedts, Kristien, 2020. "Stock-bond return correlations: Moving away from “one-frequency-fits-all” by extending the DCC-MIDAS approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Radi, Sherrihan & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2024. "The wisdom of the madness of crowds: Investor herding, anti-herding, and stock-bond return correlation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 966-995.
    8. Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Intraday online investor sentiment and return patterns in the U.S. stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 25-40.
    9. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. Cervantes, Paula & Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos & Huélamo, Diego, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 induced panic on stock market returns: A two-year experience," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1075-1097.
    11. Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & Alomari, Mohammad & McMillan, David, 2021. "Multiscale stock-bond correlation: Implications for risk management," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2020. "Stock returns and investor sentiment: textual analysis and social media," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 458-485, July.
    13. Szymon Lis, 2024. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Papers 2411.13180, arXiv.org.
    14. Sclip, Alex & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-44.
    15. Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
    16. Santi, Caterina, 2023. "Investor climate sentiment and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Eraslan, Sercan & Ali, Faek Menla, 2017. "Financial crises and the dynamic linkages between stock and bond returns," Discussion Papers 17/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Harumi Ohmi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2016. "Trends in stock-bond correlations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 536-552, February.
    19. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
    20. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek & Tucker, Allan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:57:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-021-00967-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.