IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v54y2016i4p1077-1110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • RUSSELL JAME
  • RICK JOHNSTON
  • STANIMIR MARKOV
  • MICHAEL C. WOLFE

Abstract

Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell Jame & Rick Johnston & Stanimir Markov & Michael C. Wolfe, 2016. "The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1077-1110, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:54:y:2016:i:4:p:1077-1110
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12121
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-679X.12121?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooper, Rick A. & Day, Theodore E. & Lewis, Craig M., 2001. "Following the leader: *1: a study of individual analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 383-416, September.
    2. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    3. Brown Jr., William D. & Fernando, Guy D., 2011. "Whisper forecasts of earnings per share: Is anyone still listening?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 476-482, May.
    4. Gregory S. Miller & Douglas J. Skinner, 2015. "The Evolving Disclosure Landscape: How Changes in Technology, the Media, and Capital Markets Are Affecting Disclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 221-239, May.
    5. Roger K. Loh & René M. Stulz, 2011. "When Are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 593-627.
    6. Pervin K. Shroff & Ramgopal Venkataraman & Baohua Xin, 2014. "Timeliness of Analysts' Forecasts: The Information Content of Delayed Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 202-229, March.
    7. So, Eric C., 2013. "A new approach to predicting analyst forecast errors: Do investors overweight analyst forecasts?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 615-640.
    8. Bagnoli, Mark & Beneish, Messod D. & Watts, Susan G., 1999. "Whisper forecasts of quarterly earnings per share," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-50, November.
    9. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Economic Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10740.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lian Fen Lee & Amy P. Hutton & Susan Shu, 2015. "The Role of Social Media in the Capital Market: Evidence from Consumer Product Recalls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 367-404, May.
    12. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    13. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    15. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    16. Jim Giles, 2005. "Internet encyclopaedias go head to head," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7070), pages 900-901, December.
    17. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    18. Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh & Peter D. Wysocki, 2004. "The Walk†down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 885-924, December.
    19. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter F. Pope & Tong Wang, 2023. "Analyst ability and research effort: non-EPS forecast provision as a research quality signal," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1263-1315, September.
    2. Sean Cleary & Jonathan Jona & Gladys Lee & Joshua Shemesh, 2020. "Underlying risk preferences and analyst risk‐taking behavior," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 949-981, July.
    3. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    4. Sanghyuk Byun & Kristin Roland, 2021. "Analyst bias and forecast consistency," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5403-5437, December.
    5. Ting Chen & Xiumin Martin, 2011. "Do Bank‐Affiliated Analysts Benefit from Lending Relationships?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 633-675, June.
    6. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Yang, Yanhua Sunny & Yung, Chris, 2024. "Do analysts distribute negative opinions earlier?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    9. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    10. Wai Fong Chua & Yu Flora Kuang & Yi (Ava) Wu, 2024. "The Effect of Organizational Climate on Sell‐side Analyst Turnover and Performance," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 60(1), pages 49-90, March.
    11. Sanford, Anthony, 2024. "Information content of option prices: Comparing analyst forecasts to option-based forecasts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    13. Chau, Michael & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2020. "Wisdom of crowds before the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Kim, Robert & Kim, Sangwan, 2021. "Does revenue-expense matching play a differential role in analysts’ earnings and revenue forecasts?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    15. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Vesa Pursiainen, 2022. "Cultural Biases in Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 163-211, February.
    17. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
    18. Md Miran Hossain & Babak Mammadov & Hamid Vakilzadeh, 2022. "Wisdom of the crowd and stock price crash risk: evidence from social media," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 709-742, February.
    19. Cade, Nicole L., 2018. "Corporate social media: How two-way disclosure channels influence investors," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 63-79.
    20. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:54:y:2016:i:4:p:1077-1110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.