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COVID-19 Sentiment and the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from the Official News Media and Sina Weibo

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  • Duan, Yuejiao
  • Liu, Lanbiao
  • Wang, Zhuo

Abstract

This study quantitatively measures the Chinese stock market’s reaction to sentiments regarding the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). Using 6.3 million items of textual data extracted from the official news media and Sina Weibo blogsite, we develop two COVID-19 sentiment indices that capture the moods related to COVID-19. Our sentiment indices are real-time and forward-looking indices in the stock market. We discover that stock returns and turnover rates were positively predicted by the COVID-19 sentiments during the period from December 17, 2019 to March 13, 2020. Consistent with this prediction, margin trading and short selling activities intensified proactively with growth sentiment. Overall, these results illustrate how the effects of the pandemic crisis were amplified by the sentiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Yuejiao & Liu, Lanbiao & Wang, Zhuo, 2021. "COVID-19 Sentiment and the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from the Official News Media and Sina Weibo," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000532
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101432
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    3. Song, Ziyu & Gong, Xiaomin & Zhang, Cheng & Yu, Changrui, 2023. "Investor sentiment based on scaled PCA method: A powerful predictor of realized volatility in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 528-545.
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    5. Hong, Yun & Qu, Bo & Yang, Zhuohang & Jiang, Yanhui, 2023. "The contagion of fake news concern and extreme stock market risks during the COVID-19 period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
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    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Goodell, John W. & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2024. "Isolating defensive corporate ESG effects: Evidence from purely domestic anti-COVID-19 measures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Dongyi Zhou & Rui Zhou, 2021. "ESG Performance and Stock Price Volatility in Public Health Crisis: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Xiaohong Shen & Gaoshan Wang & Yue Wang & Alfred Peris, 2021. "The Influence of Research Reports on Stock Returns: The Mediating Effect of Machine-Learning-Based Investor Sentiment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, December.
    14. Maran, Raluca, 2022. "Reaction of the Philippine stock market to domestic monetary policy surprises: an event study approach," MPRA Paper 114855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Xiong, Xiong & Yi, Shangkun, 2024. "Time-frequency extreme risk spillovers between COVID-19 news-based panic sentiment and stock market volatility in the multi-layer network: Evidence from the RCEP countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Ying Lian & Yueting Zhou & Xueying Lian & Xuefan Dong, 2022. "Cyber violence caused by the disclosure of route information during the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Hong, Yun & Jiang, Yanhui & Su, Xiaojian & Deng, Chao, 2024. "Extreme state media reporting and the extreme stock market during COVID-19: A multi-quantile VaR Granger causality approach in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    18. Du, Hanyu & Hao, Jing & He, Feng & Xi, Wenze, 2022. "Media sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns in the Chinese stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Xing, Shuo & Cheng, Tingting & Sun, Shuanglin, 2024. "Do investors herd under global crises? A comparative study between Chinese and the United States stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    20. Xu, Nana & Chen, Jiaqi & Zhou, Fangzhao & Dong, Qing & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Corporate ESG and resilience of stock prices in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Pedro M. Nogueira Reis, 2022. "Determinants of Qualified Investor Sentiment during the COVID-19 Pandemic in North America, Asia, and Europe," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    22. Hasan, Md. Tanvir, 2022. "The sum of all SCARES COVID-19 sentiment and asset return," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 332-346.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19); Sentiment; Chinese stock market; Official News Media; Sina Weibo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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