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Commodity Prices And Bank Lending

Author

Listed:
  • Isha Agarwal
  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Andrea F. Presbitero

Abstract

We analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries. A bank‐level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending, particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms‐of‐trade decline. We complement this analysis with loan‐level data from a credit register, which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit, controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers' credit demand. Results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively. (JEL F30, F34, G21, Q02)

Suggested Citation

  • Isha Agarwal & Rupa Duttagupta & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2020. "Commodity Prices And Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 953-979, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:58:y:2020:i:2:p:953-979
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12836
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Cantú, Carlos & Lobato, Roberto & López, Calixto & López-Gallo, Fabrizio, 2022. "A loan-level analysis of financial resilience in Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Bermpei, Theodora & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios & Alshalahi, Jebreel, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    5. Hegerty, Scott W., 2024. "Commodity prices and domestic credit in Central and Eastern Europe: Are there asymmetric effects?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    6. Ercan Yasar & Güray Akalin & Sinan Erdogan & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2022. "Trading Kuznets curve: empirical analysis for China," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 741-768, August.
    7. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    8. Thorsten Beck & Olivier De Jonghe & Klaas Mulier, 2022. "Bank Sectoral Concentration and Risk: Evidence from a Worldwide Sample of Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1705-1739, September.
    9. Bilgili, Faik & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Majok Garang, Aweng Peter, 2024. "The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and risks taken by the bank: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2023. "Wholesale funding and bank stability: The impact of economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Goes, Iasmin & Kaplan, Stephen B., 2024. "Crude credit: The political economy of natural resource booms and sovereign debt management," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    13. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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