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Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective

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  • Petar Sorić

    (University of Zagreb)

Abstract

This paper offers a pioneer attempt to unveil the time-varying impact of consumer confidence on GDP growth. The empirical analysis is based on a state space model with time-varying coefficients, which is employed on a dataset from 11 New EU Member States. It is shown that the impact of consumer confidence (reflecting the overall uncertainty level in the country) skyrockets in the 2008 Great Recession, providing evidence that the recent crisis was to some extent psychologically governed. After that, the influence of consumer confidence on GDP mostly stabilizes at earlier levels. The EU accession seems not to play an important role in the observed relationship. The obtained conclusions are quite robust across countries and remain intact upon the inclusion of additional control variables in the model. A possible solution for keeping the psychological determinants of the crisis under control is a prompt, coherent, and clearly communicated crisis management policy, which might help preventing a momentous drop of consumer confidence and overall uncertainty.

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  • Petar Sorić, 2018. "Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 261-282, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9360-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9360-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
    2. Petar Sorić & Blanka Škrabić Perić & Marina Matošec, 2022. "Breaking new grounds: a fresh insight into the leading properties of business and consumer survey indicators," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4511-4535, December.
    3. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
    4. Petar Sorić, 2022. "Ability to consume versus willingness to consume: the role of nonlinearities," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 663-689, August.
    5. Petar Sorić, 2020. "“Normal†growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1740-1746.
    6. Lachezar Borisov, 2022. "Consumer Confidence And Real Economic Growth In The Eurozone," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(3).
    7. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    8. Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2022. "Household savings in CESEE: expectations, experiences and common predictors," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/22, pages 29-54.
    9. Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2022. "Recent Revision of the European Consumer Confidence Indicator: Is There any additional Space for Improvement?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 845-863, February.
    10. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    11. Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2022. "Mitigating the impact of the pandemic on personal finances in CESEE: descriptive evidence for 2020," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/22, pages 63-96.
    12. Čižmešija Mirjana & Lukač Zrinka & Novoselec Tomislav, 2019. "Nonlinear optimisation approach to proposing novel Croatian Industrial Confidence Indicator," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 17-26, December.
    13. Albaity, Mohamed & Shah, Syed Faisal & Al-Tamimi, Hussein A.Hassan & Rahman, Mahfuzur & Thangavelu, Shanmugam, 2023. "Country risk and bank returns: Evidence from MENA countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    14. Petar Sorić & Mirjana Čižmešija & Marina Matošec, 2020. "EU Consumer Confidence and the New Modesty Hypothesis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 899-921, December.
    15. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    16. Zorio-Grima, Ana & Merello, Paloma, 2020. "Consumer confidence: Causality links with subjective and objective information sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer confidence; Business and consumer surveys; State space models; Time-varying coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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