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“Normal†growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data

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  • Petar Sorić

    (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business)

Abstract

The past three decades of remarkable Chinese economic development have triggered a noteworthy poverty reduction and the empowerment of Chinese consumers. However, the existing literature has been quite silent on Chinese consumer sentiment and the way consumers perceive their economy as a whole. We build on that by focusing on consumer confidence data to propose an indicator of normal long-term growth for the Chinese economy. We note a significant decoupling of the stated indicator and the official GDP figures after the global financial crisis, implying that the Chinese economy is on a sub-optimal trajectory. Our findings support the middle-income trap hypothesis for the Chinese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Petar Sorić, 2020. "“Normal†growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1740-1746.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00168
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer confidence; global financial crisis; China; normal growth; middle-income trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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