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Intertemporal Similarity of Economic Time Series: An Application of Dynamic Time Warping

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  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Erasmus School of Economics)

  • Thomas Wiemann

    (Erasmus School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper adapts the non-parametric dynamic time warping (DTW) technique in an application to examine the temporal alignment and similarity across economic time series. DTW has important advantages over existing measures in economics as it alleviates concerns regarding a pre-defined fixed temporal alignment of series. For example, in contrast to current methods, DTW can capture alternations between leading and lagging relationships of series. We illustrate DTW in a study of US states’ business cycles around the Great Recession, and find considerable evidence that temporal alignments across states dynamic. Trough cluster analysis, we further document state-varying recoveries from the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Hans Franses & Thomas Wiemann, 2020. "Intertemporal Similarity of Economic Time Series: An Application of Dynamic Time Warping," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 59-75, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:56:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-020-09986-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-020-09986-0
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    Cited by:

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    3. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
    4. Xing, Zhuoqun & Pan, Yiqun & Yang, Yiting & Yuan, Xiaolei & Liang, Yumin & Huang, Zhizhong, 2024. "Transfer learning integrating similarity analysis for short-term and long-term building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    5. Miljkovic, Dragan & Vatsa, Puneet, 2023. "On the linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices: A dynamic time warping analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. V. Candila & O. Cepni & G. M. Gallo & R. Gupta, 2024. "Influence of Local and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the volatility of US state-level equity returns: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach with Shrinkage and Cluster Analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202414, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    7. Jeronymo Marcondes Pinto & Jennifer L. Castle, 2022. "Machine Learning Dynamic Switching Approach to Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 129-157, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Non-parametric method; Dynamic time warping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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