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Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market

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Abstract

We provide an analytical discussion of the optimal hedge ratio under discrepancies between the futures market price and its theoretical valuation according to the cost-of-carry model. Assuming a geometric Brownian motion for spot prices, we model mispricing as a speci…c noise component in the dynamics of futures market prices. Empirical evidence on the model is provided for the Spanish stock index futures. Ex-ante simulations with actual data reveal that hedge ratios that take into account the estimated, time-varying, correlation between the common and specific disturbances, lead to using a lower number of futures contracts than under a systematic unit ratio, without generally losing hedging e¤ectiveness, while reducing transaction costs and capital requirements. Besides, the reduction in the number of contracts can be substantial over some periods. Finally, a meanvariance expected utility function suggests that the economic benefits from an optimal hedge are substantial.

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  • Alfonso Novales & J.A. Lafuente, 2002. "Optimal hedging under departures from the cost-of-carry valuation: evidence from the Spanish stock index futures market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0223, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0223
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    1. Panayiotis Andreou & Yiannos Pierides, 2008. "Empirical investigation of stock index futures market efficiency: the case of the Athens Derivatives Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-223.
    2. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Tsang, Wei-Lun, 2011. "Cross hedging single stock with American Depositary Receipt and stock index futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 146-157, September.
    3. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
    4. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
    5. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2014. "An analysis of firm and market volatility," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 205-220.
    6. Shackleton, Mark B. & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2013. "Hedging efficiency in the Greek options market before and after the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18.
    7. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos Nomikos, 2011. "An Investigation into the Effect of Risk Management on the Profitability of Shipping Investment and Operations," Chapters, in: Kevin Cullinane (ed.), International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Jahangir Sultan & Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "The effectiveness of dynamic hedging: evidence from selected European stock index futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 469-488.
    9. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis, 2008. "Hedging effectiveness of the Athens stock index futures contracts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 243-270.
    10. Suo, Yuan-Yuan & Wang, Dong-Hua & Li, Sai-Ping, 2015. "Risk estimation of CSI 300 index spot and futures in China from a new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 344-353.
    11. Christos Floros & Dimitrios Vougas, 2004. "Hedge ratios in Greek stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1125-1136.
    12. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
    13. Hakan Er & Adnan Hushmat, 2017. "The application of technical trading rules developed from spot market prices on futures market prices using CAPM," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 313-353, December.
    14. Patrick McGlenchy & Paul Kofman, 2004. "Structurally Sound Dynamic Index Futures Hedging," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 80, Econometric Society.
    15. Pablo Urtubia & Alfonso Novales & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2021. "Cross-Hedging Portfolios in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence for the LATIBEX Index," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-19, October.
    16. Wen-Chung Hsu & Hsiang-Tai Lee, 2018. "Cross Hedging Stock Sector Risk with Index Futures by Considering the Global Equity Systematic Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, April.
    17. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal hedging; Futures contract; Stock Index; GARCH models; Mispricing.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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