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National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market

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  • Andrew Weinbach
  • Rodney J. Paul

Abstract

The market for totals, over/under bets, is examined for American college football. The sample is separated into nationally televised games on major networks, those games televised regionally or on smaller networks, and games not televised. A slight non-significant bias toward the over is observed for the sample as a whole. The bias is only statistically significant for nationally televised games on major networks. This bias to bet the over is likely due to a preference for scoring in games that bettors can watch on television. Explanations for this bias and the rejection of the efficient markets hypothesis found in this market are discussed from the point of view of the traditional sportsbook model and from the sportsbook model proposed by Levitt [Levitt, S.D. (2004). The Economic Journal , 114 , 223--246]. These results demonstrate how bettor preferences can influence markets, and offer a possible avenue of research to those seeking to understand the satisfaction sought by gamblers.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2009. "National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 55-66, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intgms:v:9:y:2009:i:1:p:55-66
    DOI: 10.1080/14459790802656887
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2007. "The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 199-211.
    2. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, et al, 1993. "Tests of Rational Expectations in a Stark Setting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 586-601, May.
    3. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2005. "Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(3), pages 409-415, September.
    4. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
    5. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2002. "Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(3), pages 256-263, August.
    6. Lyn D. Pankoff, 1968. "Market Efficiency and Football Betting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41, pages 203-203.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. B. Jay Coleman, 2017. "Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 388-425, May.

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