IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v29y2005i3p409-415.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets

Author

Listed:
  • Rodney Paul
  • Andrew Weinbach

Abstract

The betting markets for totals in college football and arena football provide additional evidence of bettor preference for scoring. The results for college football and arena football markets are similar to those found in the professional football and professional basketball totals market. In all of these leagues, the overs are overbet. We suggest that there is a clear preference for bettors to bet the over and the extent of the bias depends upon the volume of uninformed bettors to informed bettors and limits placed on bets in these markets. Copyright Springer 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2005. "Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(3), pages 409-415, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:29:y:2005:i:3:p:409-415
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02761585
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02761585
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF02761585?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sauer, Raymond D & Brajer, Vic & Ferris, Stephen P & Marr, M Wayne, 1988. "Hold Your Bets: Another Look at the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 206-213, February.
    2. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2002. "Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(3), pages 256-263, August.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:995-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2009. "National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 55-66, April.
    2. Randall W. Bennett, 2019. "Holdover Bias in the College Football Betting Market," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 103-110, March.
    3. Robert Arscott, 2023. "Market Efficiency and Censoring Bias in College Football Gambling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 664-689, June.
    4. Evan Moore & James Francisco, 2019. "Efficiency, Profitability, and College Football: do Bettors Overrate the Major Conferences in Interconference Play?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 159-167, June.
    5. James Francisco & Evan Moore, 2019. "Betting with house money: reverse line movement based strategies in college football totals markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 813-827, October.
    6. Kenneth Linna & Evan Moore & Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2014. "The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, April.
    7. James Francisco & Evan Moore, 2018. "A comment on Paul and Weinbach’s (2005) “Bettor preferences and efficient markets in totals markets”," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 836-840, October.
    8. Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis, 2024. "Examining the impact of visibility on market efficiency: lessons from movement in NFL betting lines," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 263-279, June.
    9. Steven Salaga & Scott Tainsky, 2015. "The Effects of Outcome Uncertainty, Scoring, and Pregame Expectations on Nielsen Ratings for Bowl Championship Series Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(5), pages 439-459, June.
    10. Kevin Krieger & Justin L. Davis & James Strode, 2021. "Patience is a virtue: exploiting behavior bias in gambling markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 735-750, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodney J Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Wagering Preferences Of Nfl Bettors: Determinants Of Betting Volume," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(1), pages 42-55.
    2. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P. & Wilson, Mark, 2004. "Efficient markets, fair bets, and profitability in NBA totals 1995-96 to 2001-02," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 624-632, September.
    3. Andrew Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2009. "National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 55-66, April.
    4. Humphreys, Brad R. & Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2013. "Consumption benefits and gambling: Evidence from the NCAA basketball betting market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-386.
    5. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Baker, Rose D. & McHale, Ian G., 2013. "Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 122-130.
    7. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach & Justin Mattingly, 2018. "Tests of Racial Discrimination in a Simple Financial Market: Managers in Major League Baseball," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, March.
    8. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2011. "NFL bettor biases and price setting: further tests of the Levitt hypothesis of sportsbook behaviour," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-197.
    9. Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Is the NFL betting market still inefficient?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 818-827, October.
    10. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2005. "Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(4), pages 390-400, November.
    11. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
    12. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 21-37, August.
    13. Kyle J. Kain & Trevon D. Logan, 2014. "Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 45-63, February.
    14. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2018. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 455-472, May.
    15. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Niko Suhonen & Jani Saastamoinen, 2018. "How Do Prior Gains and Losses Affect Subsequent Risk Taking? New Evidence from Individual-Level Horse Race Bets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2797-2808, June.
    17. Ziemba, William, 2020. "Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118873, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: A Unified Explanation for Equity Puzzles," MPRA Paper 68729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2010. "A Behavioral Model of Demandable Deposits and its Implications for Financial Regulation," NBER Working Papers 16620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Onishchenko, Olena & Zhao, Jing & Kongahawatte, Sampath & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and anchoring-induced momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:29:y:2005:i:3:p:409-415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.