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Holdover Bias in the College Football Betting Market

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  • Randall W. Bennett

    (Gonzaga University)

Abstract

This article investigated the efficiency of the college football betting market for the following season’s first game for members of the final Associated Press Top 25 Poll. Market inefficiency was identified, with bets against these teams winning significantly more than half the time. Separate analysis of the top 10 and the remaining members of the Top 25 indicated that the inefficiency was due to the previous season’s top 10 being significantly overvalued in the betting market at the start of the next season. Bets against the top 10 teams won significantly more than the 52.4% necessary for profitability. This was especially true when they played non-Power 5 schools. Efficiency could not be rejected for the teams ranked 11 through 25. The study contributed to the literature on betting market efficiency by providing evidence that bettors could be backward-looking and over-rely on outdated information.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall W. Bennett, 2019. "Holdover Bias in the College Football Betting Market," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 103-110, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:47:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11293-019-09611-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-019-09611-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dagaev, Dmitry & Stoyan, Egor, 2020. "Parimutuel betting on the eSports duels: Evidence of the reverse favourite-longshot bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    3. Dmitry Dagaev & Egor Stoyan, 2019. "Parimutuel Betting On The Esports Duels: Reverse Favourite-Longshot Bias And Its Determinants," HSE Working papers WP BRP 216/EC/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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