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Confirmatory Bias in Health Decisions: Evidence from the MMR-Autism Controversy

Author

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  • Mengcen Qian
  • Shin-Yi Chou
  • Ernest K. Lai

Abstract

Since Wakefield et al. (1998), the public was exposed to mixed information surrounding the claim that measles-mumps-rubella vaccine causes autism. A persistent trend to delay the vaccination during 1998–2011 in the US was driven by children of college-educated mothers, suggesting that these mothers held biases against the vaccine influenced by the early unfounded claim. Consistent with confirmatory bias, exposures to negative information about the vaccine strengthened their biases more than exposures to positive information attenuated them. Positive online information, however, had strong impacts on vaccination decisions, suggesting that online dissemination of vaccine-safety information may help tackle the sticky misinformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengcen Qian & Shin-Yi Chou & Ernest K. Lai, 2020. "Confirmatory Bias in Health Decisions: Evidence from the MMR-Autism Controversy," NBER Working Papers 26772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26772
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. De Rosis, Sabina & Lopreite, Milena & Puliga, Michelangelo & Vainieri, Milena, 2021. "The early weeks of the Italian Covid-19 outbreak: sentiment insights from a Twitter analysis," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(8), pages 987-994.
    3. Lawrence Jin & Don Kenkel & Michael Lovenheim & Alan Mathios & Hua Wang, 2024. "Misinformation, consumer risk perceptions, and markets: The impact of an information shock on vaping and smoking cessation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1652-1678, October.
    4. Sofia Amaral‐Garcia & Mattia Nardotto & Carol Propper & Tommaso Valletti, 2024. "Information and vaccine hesitancy: The role of broadband Internet," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 1936-1948, September.
    5. Anikó Bíró & Ágnes Szabó-Morvai, 2021. "Mass media coverage and vaccination uptake: evidence from the demand for meningococcal vaccinations in Hungary," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(6), pages 887-903, August.
    6. Blondel, Serge & Langot, François & Mueller, Judith E. & Sicsic, Jonathan, 2021. "Preferences and COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions," IZA Discussion Papers 14823, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2023. "When reality bites: Local deaths and vaccine take-up," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Raúl Tárraga-Mínguez & Irene Gómez-Marí & Pilar Sanz-Cervera, 2020. "What Motivates Internet Users to Search for Asperger Syndrome and Autism on Google?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Hirani, Jonas Lau-Jensen, 2021. "Inattention or reluctance? Parental responses to vaccination reminder letters," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Claudio Deiana & Andrea Geraci & Gianluca Mazzarella & Fabio Sabatini, 2022. "Perceived risk and vaccine hesitancy: Quasi‐experimental evidence from Italy," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1266-1275, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education

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