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Government bond market linkages within EMU: evidence from a multivariate Granger causality analysis

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  • Iuliana Matei

    (University of Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne)

Abstract

The paper investigates empirically and from a dynamic perspective the causality relationships between the different EMU's government bond markets. We focus on two main periods: the pre-crisis period (from November 2003 to September 2008), and the crisis period (from September 2008 to February 2013). Using a multivariate Granger causality approach, we find that the integration of government bond markets is week, and the number and the direction of causality change during the crisis. Furthermore, countries exhibit different paths of financial convergence with Germany that we consider to be virtually free of risk, especially during the crisis period. These findings have implications for investors in terms of the diversification of their portfolios, and for policymakers in terms of managing common monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Iuliana Matei, 2013. "Government bond market linkages within EMU: evidence from a multivariate Granger causality analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1885-1898.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00124
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I3-P177.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Iuliana Matei & Angela Cheptea, 2012. "Sovereign Bond Spread Drivers in the EU Market in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Jerry Hausman, pages 327-352, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2003. "Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 171-186, April.
    5. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    6. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948, November.
    7. Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish: How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2009/108, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market? [‘What “hides” behind sovereign debt ratings?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(58), pages 191-240.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayraci, Selcuk, 2015. "Return, shock and volatility co-movements between the bond markets of Turkey and developed countries," MPRA Paper 65758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Selçuk BAYRACI, 2018. "Return, shock and volatility spillovers between the bond markets of Turkey and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(616), A), pages 135-144, Autumn.
    3. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sara E. Bennett & Mahendhiran Nair & John H. Hall, 2016. "Bond Market Development, Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 175-201, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; government bond markets; euro zone crisis; multivariate Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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