IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v26y2007i8p571-582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Li

    (Department of Economics and Business, Kalamazoo College, Kalamazoo, Michigan, USA)

  • Walter J. Mayer

    (Economics Department, University of Mississippi, University, Mississippi, USA)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasting accuracy in a multi-period stay|leave model. While corrections for selection bias are needed for consistent coefficient estimates, they do not necessarily produce more accurate forecasts than uncorrected techniques. Theorem 1 shows that, apart from estimation errors, a shrinkage principle applies: the heterogeneity restriction imposed by uncorrected and combination techniques improves accuracy for forecasting individuals that leave, and hurts accuracy for forecasting individuals that stay. This has important implications for decision making because of the potential for asymmetric losses. We also present an illustrative empirical application and results from Monte Carlo experiments. We find that differences in relative accuracy vary directly with the degree of selection bias and inversely with the percentage of the initial population that stays. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Li & Walter J. Mayer, 2007. "Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 571-582.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:8:p:571-582
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1028
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.1028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manning, W. G. & Duan, N. & Rogers, W. H., 1987. "Monte Carlo evidence on the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 59-82, May.
    2. Gronau, Reuben, 1974. "Wage Comparisons-A Selectivity Bias," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1119-1143, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Black, Matthew & Moffitt, Robert & Warner, John T, 1990. "The Dynamics of Job Separation: The Case of Federal Employees," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 245-262, July-Sept.
    4. Daula, Thomas & Moffitt, Robert, 1995. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 499-523, July.
    5. Leung, Siu Fai & Yu, Shihti, 1996. "On the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 197-229.
    6. Manski, Charles F. & Thompson, T. Scott, 1989. "Estimation of best predictors of binary response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-123, January.
    7. Heckman, James J, 1974. "Shadow Prices, Market Wages, and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 679-694, July.
    8. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-764, May.
    9. Siu Fai Leung & Shihti Yu, 2000. "Collinearity and Two-Step Estimation of Sample Selection Models: Problems, Origins, and Remedies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 173-199, June.
    10. Black, Matthew & Moffitt, Robert & Warner, John T, 1990. "The Dynamics of Job Separation: The Case of the Federal Employees: Reply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 269-272, July-Sept.
    11. Zuehlke, Thomas W & Zeman, Allen R, 1991. "A Comparison of Two-Stage Estimators of Censored Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 185-188, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Genius & E. Strazzera, 2003. "The copula approach of sampling selection modelling: an application to the recreational value of forests," Working Paper CRENoS 200308, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    2. Seonho Shin, 2022. "To work or not? Wages or subsidies?: Copula-based evidence of subsidized refugees’ negative selection into employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 2209-2252, October.
    3. Asch, Beth & Haider, Steven J. & Zissimopoulos, Julie, 2005. "Financial incentives and retirement: evidence from federal civil service workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 427-440, February.
    4. Martijn van Hasselt, 2005. "Bayesian Sampling Algorithms for the Sample Selection and Two-Part Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 241, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Mikhail Zhelonkin & Marc G. Genton & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2016. "Robust inference in sample selection models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(4), pages 805-827, September.
    6. Yiu Por (Vincent) Chen, 2016. "Fiscal Decentralization, Rural Industrialization and Undocumented Labour Mobility in Rural China, 1982–87," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1469-1482, September.
    7. Stephen L. Mehay & Paul F. Hogan, 1998. "The Effect of Separation Bonuses on Voluntary Quits: Evidence from the Military's Downsizing," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 127-139, July.
    8. Maksym, Obrizan, 2010. "A Bayesian Model of Sample Selection with a Discrete Outcome Variable," MPRA Paper 28577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Elisabetta Strazzera & Margarita Genius, 2004. "The Copula Approach to Sample Selection Modelling: An Application to the Recreational Value of Forests," Working Papers 2004.73, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Campbell, Randall C. & Nagel, Gregory L., 2016. "Private information and limitations of Heckman's estimator in banking and corporate finance research," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 186-195.
    11. Jeremy T. Fox, 2010. "Estimating the Employer Switching Costs and Wage Responses of Forward-Looking Engineers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 357-412, April.
    12. Xi He, 2012. "Two Sides of a Coin: Endogenous and Exogenous Effects of Corporate Diversification on Firm Value," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 375-397, December.
    13. Amos Golan & Enrico Moretti & Jeffrey M.Perloff, 2004. "A Small-Sample Estimator for the Sample-Selection Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 71-91.
    14. Takashi Yamagata & Chris Orme, 2005. "On Testing Sample Selection Bias Under the Multicollinearity Problem," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 467-481.
    15. Aakvik, Arild & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Vaage, Kjell, 2003. "Measuring Heterogeneity in the Returns to Education in Norway Using Educational Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 815, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Robert Moffitt, 1991. "Program Evaluation With Nonexperimental Data," Evaluation Review, , vol. 15(3), pages 291-314, June.
    18. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? A Cross-Country Analysis of Gender Gaps," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 621-654, October.
    19. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2018. "A dynamic double hurdle model for remittances: evidence from Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 365-377.
    20. Saulo, Helton & Vila, Roberto & Cordeiro, Shayane S. & Leiva, Víctor, 2023. "Bivariate symmetric Heckman models and their characterization," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:8:p:571-582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.