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The Dynamics of Job Separation: The Case of Federal Employees

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  • Black, Matthew
  • Moffitt, Robert
  • Warner, John T

Abstract

In this paper we develop a model of workers' quit decisions. Using panel data on a sample of U.S. Federal government employees we use maximum-likelihood techniques to determine how much of the observed decline in quits with job tenure is a result of declining individual quit propensities (" state dependence") rather than dynamic sample self-selection (" heterogeneity"). The latter is found to be much more important than the former. The effects of relative Federal government wages and other variables on quits are also estimated. The results are useful for analyzing Federal compensation policies. Copyright 1990 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Black, Matthew & Moffitt, Robert & Warner, John T, 1990. "The Dynamics of Job Separation: The Case of Federal Employees," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 245-262, July-Sept.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:5:y:1990:i:3:p:245-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Munasinghe, Lalith, 2006. "Expectations matter: Job prospects and turnover dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 589-609, October.
    2. George J. Borjas, 2002. "The Wage Structure and the Sorting of Workers into the Public Sector," NBER Working Papers 9313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Boylan, Richard T, 2004. "Salaries, Turnover, and Performance in the Federal Criminal Justice System," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(1), pages 75-92, April.
    4. Stephen L. Mehay & Paul F. Hogan, 1998. "The Effect of Separation Bonuses on Voluntary Quits: Evidence from the Military's Downsizing," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 127-139, July.
    5. Serden Özcan & Toke Reichstein, 2009. "Transition to Entrepreneurship from the Public Sector: Predispositional and Contextual Effects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 604-618, April.
    6. Leonardo M. Giuffrida & Emilio Raiteri, 2023. "Bureaucratic Frictions and Innovation Procurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 10775, CESifo.
    7. Asch, Beth & Haider, Steven J. & Zissimopoulos, Julie, 2005. "Financial incentives and retirement: evidence from federal civil service workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 427-440, February.
    8. Yang Li & Walter J. Mayer, 2007. "Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 571-582.

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