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A Hybrid Model for Disease Spread and an Application to the SARS Pandemic

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Abstract

Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale differential equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level simulations, which are harder to apply at a global scale. This paper introduces a hybrid model for pandemics that considers both global and local spread of infection. We hypothesize that the spread of an infectious disease between regions is significantly influenced by global traffic patterns and that the spread within a region is influenced by local conditions. Thus we model the spread of pandemics considering the connections between regions for the global spread of infection and population density based on the SEIR model for the local spread of infection. We validate our hybrid model by carrying out a simulation study for the spread of the SARS pandemic of 2002-2003 using available data on population, population density, and traffic networks between different regions. While it is well-known that international relationships and global traffic patterns significantly influence the spread of pandemics, our results show that integrating these factors into relatively simple models can greatly improve the results of modeling disease spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Teruhiko Yoneyama & Sanmay Das & Mukkai Krishnamoorthy, 2012. "A Hybrid Model for Disease Spread and an Application to the SARS Pandemic," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(1), pages 1-5.
  • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2010-96-2
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    1. Chung-Yuan Huang & Chuen-Tsai Sun & Ji-Lung Hsieh & Holin Lin, 2004. "Simulating SARS: Small-World Epidemiological Modeling and Public Health Policy Assessments," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 7(4), pages 1-2.
    2. Vittoria Colizza & Alain Barrat & Marc Barthelemy & Alain-Jacques Valleron & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    1. Elizabeth Hunter & Brian Mac Namee & John Kelleher, 2020. "A Hybrid Agent-Based and Equation Based Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 23(4), pages 1-14.

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