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Fatti stilizzati e metodi econometrici "Moderni": una rivalutazione della Curva di Phillips per l'Italia (1951-1996)

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  • R. Golinelli

Abstract

A quarant anni dalla sua introduzione, la curva di Phillips riveste ancora un ruolo importante negli studi applicati, nonostante le critiche cui stata sottoposta dalla successiva letteratura. In questo lavoro, utilizzando tecniche di modellazione econometrica di serie storiche non stazionarie per l Italia dal dopoguerra ad oggi, si evidenzia la stabilit di una relazione di lungo periodo fra il tasso di variazione del salario reale e il tasso di disoccupazione; questo risultato robusto all uso di stimatori alternativi. Nel breve periodo si propone un modello interpretativo caratterizzato da un meccanismo non lineare di correzione dell errore.

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  • R. Golinelli, 1998. "Fatti stilizzati e metodi econometrici "Moderni": una rivalutazione della Curva di Phillips per l'Italia (1951-1996)," Working Papers 313, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:313
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    1. Francesco Pastore, 2010. "Assessing the impact of incomes policy: the Italian experience," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(7), pages 793-817, October.
    2. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.

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