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Modelling Anticipated and Temporary Fiscal Policy Shocks in a Macro-econometric Model of Canada

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  • D. Peter Dungan
  • Thomas A. Wilson

Abstract

Following the work of Ray Fair (1979), expectations terms in the FOCUS model are generated using predicted values from the model itself. Expectations are therefore "consistent" with the model struct ured. Government expenditure multipliers are compared for the standar d model and the CE version. Three further examples show the power of the technique as applied to the analysis of fiscal policy shocks. T he first considers a temporary versus a permanent income tax surcharg e. The second considers the possibility of an "anticipatory recession " when preannounced fiscal stimulus is combined with monetary restrai nt. The third examines the planned restructuring of the Canadian corp orate tax system.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Peter Dungan & Thomas A. Wilson, 1988. "Modelling Anticipated and Temporary Fiscal Policy Shocks in a Macro-econometric Model of Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 41-60, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:21:y:1988:i:1:p:41-60
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    2. Bryant, R.C. & Helliwell, J.F. & Hooper, P., 1989. "Domestic And Cross-Border Consequences Of U.S. Macroeconomic Policies," Papers 68, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
    3. Stefan F. Schubert & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2006. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(2), pages 135-161, May.

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