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Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB

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  • F. J. H. Don
  • J. P. Verbruggen

Abstract

What is now known in English as the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has been involved in econometric model building since its foundation in 1945. During the 60 years of developing and using the models reviewed in this article, CPB's model building has evolved significantly. Over this period, a shift of emphasis can be observed from econometrics and empiricism to economic theory. New questions from policymakers and new features in the national economy have guided research, while new developments in econometrics and economic theory were taken on board wherever they helped to improve the quality and scope of the analysis. Although considerable progress has been achieved in several spheres, even the most sophisticated and up‐to‐date models continue to be riddled with some longstanding limitations and weaknesses.

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  • F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:60:y:2006:i:2:p:145-170
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2006.00323.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Bezemer, Dirk J., 2010. "Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 676-688, October.
    3. Frits Bos & Coen Teulings, 2012. "The world’s oldest fiscal watchdog: CPB’s analyses foster consensus on economic policy," CPB Discussion Paper 207, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495, April.
    5. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    6. Bos, Frits & Teulings, Coen, 2011. "Evaluating election platforms: a task for fiscal councils? Scope and rules of the game in view of 25 years of Dutch practice," MPRA Paper 31536, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Coen Teulings & Frits Bos, 2010. "CPB and Dutch fiscal policy in view of the financial crisis and ageing," CPB Document 218.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Bos, Frits, 2011. "Three centuries of macro-economic statistics," MPRA Paper 35391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bos, Frits, 2008. "Uses of National Accounts; History, International Standardization and Applications in the Netherlands," MPRA Paper 9387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. de Boer, P.M.C., 2009. "Modeling household behavior in a CGE model: linear expenditure system or indirect addilog?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    13. Dirk J. Bezemer, 2012. "Modelos contables y comprensión de la crisis financiera," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 14(26), pages 47-76, January-J.
    14. Bos, Frits & Teulings, Coen N, 2012. "The world’s oldest fiscal watchdog: CPB’s analyses foster consensus on economic policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Paul De Boer & Richard Paap, 2009. "Testing non‐nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 368-384, August.
    16. Rodolphe Buda, 2015. "Data Checking and Econometric Software Development: A Technique of Traceability by Fictive Data Encoding," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 325-357, August.
    17. Bos, Frits, 2009. "The National Accounts as a Tool for Analysis and Policy; History, Economic Theory and Data Compilation Issues," MPRA Paper 23582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2007. "SAFFIER; a multi-purpose model of the Dutch economy for short-term and medium-term analyses," CPB Document 144, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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