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A Hybrid Simulation Approach for Estimating the Market Share Evolution of Electric Vehicles

Author

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  • Karsten Kieckhäfer

    (Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production, Technische Universität Braunschweig, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany)

  • Thomas Volling

    (Chair of Production and Logistics Management, FernUniversität in Hagen, 58084 Hagen, Germany)

  • Thomas Stefan Spengler

    (Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production, Technische Universität Braunschweig, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany)

Abstract

Meeting the 21st century’s challenges of climate change and scarcity of crude oil requires a better understanding of the forces that ensure a successful market introduction of electric vehicles. Against this background, we develop a hybrid simulation approach to estimate the evolution of market shares of electric vehicles. The approach integrates a system dynamics model with an agent-based discrete choice model. System dynamics is used to model the interdependencies between consumer choice, consumer awareness, evolution of powertrain technologies, and service station availability on the macro level. By integrating the agent-based discrete choice model we refine the model parts of consumer choice and consumer awareness. This allows for considering individual consumer choices. Based on real-world data, we apply the model to the established and saturated German market, where replacement purchases dominate. This way we study the interdependencies between the evolution on the macro level and (1) individual replacement purchases as well as (2) heterogeneous consumer behavior. We show that both effects have a clear influence on the market share evolution of electric vehicles. The results indicate that neglecting individual consumer choices in aggregated system models may lead to systematically wrong estimations of the evolution of the market shares of electric vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Kieckhäfer & Thomas Volling & Thomas Stefan Spengler, 2014. "A Hybrid Simulation Approach for Estimating the Market Share Evolution of Electric Vehicles," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 651-670, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:48:y:2014:i:4:p:651-670
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2014.0526
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    3. Lieven, Theo, 2015. "Policy measures to promote electric mobility – A global perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 78-93.
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    5. Lukas, Elmar & Spengler, Thomas Stefan & Kupfer, Stefan & Kieckhäfer, Karsten, 2017. "When and how much to invest? Investment and capacity choice under product life cycle uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1105-1114.
    6. Gu, Huaying & Liu, Zhixue & Qing, Qiankai, 2017. "Optimal electric vehicle production strategy under subsidy and battery recycling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 579-589.
    7. Zhu, Mengping & Liu, Zhixue & Li, Jianbin & Zhu, Stuart X., 2020. "Electric vehicle battery capacity allocation and recycling with downstream competition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 365-379.
    8. Christian Weckenborg & Karsten Kieckhäfer & Thomas S. Spengler & Patricia Bernstein, 2020. "The Volkswagen Pre-Production Center Applies Operations Research to Optimize Capacity Scheduling," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 119-136, March.
    9. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Nordfjaern, Trond & Klöckner, Christian A., 2022. "A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Gnann, T. & Speth, D. & Seddig, K. & Stich, M. & Schade, W. & Gómez Vilchez, J.J., 2022. "How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Quarles, Neil & Kockelman, Kara M. & Lee, Jooyong, 2021. "America’s fleet evolution in an automated future," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & Bob Walrave & A. Georges L. Romme & Rob Raven, 2020. "Toward the Dynamic Modeling of Transition Problems: The Case of Electric Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Anders F. Jensen & Elisabetta Cherchi & Stefan L. Mabit & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2017. "Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 427-440, May.
    15. Esteban Lopez-Arboleda & Alfonso T. Sarmiento & Laura M. Cardenas, 2021. "Systemic approach for integration of sustainability in evaluation of public policies for adoption of electric vehicles," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 399-417, August.
    16. Mark M. Nejad & Lena Mashayekhy & Daniel Grosu & Ratna Babu Chinnam, 2017. "Optimal Routing for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 1304-1325, November.
    17. Huth, Christian & Kieckhäfer, Karsten & Spengler, Thomas Stefan, 2015. "Make-or-buy strategies for electric vehicle batteries—a simulation-based analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 22-34.
    18. Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Jochem, Patrick, 2019. "Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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