IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v36y1990i4p401-421.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prelaunch Forecasting of New Automobiles

Author

Listed:
  • Glen L. Urban

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

  • John R. Hauser

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

  • John H. Roberts

    (University of New South Wales, Kensington, New South Wales, Australia)

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a prelaunch model and measurement system to the marketing planning of a new automobile. The analysis addresses active search by consumers, dealer visits, word-of-mouth communication, magazine reviews, and production constraints---issues that are important in understanding consumer response to durable goods. We address these issues with a detailed consumer flow model which monitors and projects key consumer transitions in response to marketing actions. A test-vs.-control consumer clinic provides data which, with judgment and previous experience, are used to "calibrate" the model to fit the sales history of the control car. We illustrate how the model evolved to meet management needs and provided suggestions on advertising, dealer training, and consumer incentives. Comparison of the model's predictions to actual sales data suggests reasonable accuracy when an implemented strategy matches the planned strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Glen L. Urban & John R. Hauser & John H. Roberts, 1990. "Prelaunch Forecasting of New Automobiles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 401-421, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:36:y:1990:i:4:p:401-421
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.36.4.401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.4.401
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.36.4.401?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:36:y:1990:i:4:p:401-421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.