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Updating the Reference Level: Experimental Evidence

In: Experimental Business Research

Author

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  • Uri Gneezy

    (The University of Chicago)

Abstract

Empirical findings suggest that in decisions under uncertainty people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference level: they are risk seeking in the domain of losses and risk averse in the domain of gains. This finding is used in the finance literature to predict/explain the “disposition effect,” which is the tendency of investors to sell assets that have gained value (“winners”) too early and ride assets that have lost value (“losers”) too long. The current experiment was designed to overcome some of the difficulties involved in using real market data to test the disposition effect. One of the main goals was to find evidence on how prior gains and losses influence the risk behavior of people, by shifting the reference level. The results were consistent with the disposition effect hypothesis. Furthermore, it was found that the data are best described by assuming that participants use the historical peak of the process as a reference level.

Suggested Citation

  • Uri Gneezy, 2005. "Updating the Reference Level: Experimental Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport (ed.), Experimental Business Research, chapter 0, pages 263-284, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-0-387-24244-6_12
    DOI: 10.1007/0-387-24244-9_12
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bo Yan & Jiwen Wu & Zijie Jin & Shiyou He, 2020. "Decision-making of fresh agricultural product supply chain considering the manufacturer’s fairness concerns," 4OR, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 91-122, March.
    2. Rosenblatt-Wisch, Rina, 2008. "Loss aversion in aggregate macroeconomic time series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1140-1159, October.
    3. Zhang, nan & Qin, Botao, 2020. "Reference point adaptation and air quality – Experimental evidence with anti-PM 2.5 facemasks from China," MPRA Paper 102935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Schunk, Daniel, 2009. "Behavioral heterogeneity in dynamic search situations: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1719-1738, September.
    5. Philipp Strack & Paul Viefers, 2021. "Too Proud to Stop: Regret in Dynamic Decisions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 165-199.
    6. Martin, Jolie M. & Lejarraga, Tomás & Gonzalez, Cleotilde, 2018. "The effects of motivation and memory on the weighting of reference prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-25.
    7. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    8. Hamza Bahaji, 2009. "Contribution à l'analyse des déterminants du comportement d'exercice des porteurs de stock options : une étude empirique sur le marché Américain," Working Papers halshs-00512840, HAL.
    9. Baucells, Manel & Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "Reference point formation over time : a weighting function approach," Papers 07-43, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    10. Ashish Pandey, 2021. "Reference Prices and Turnover: Evidence from Small-Capitalization Stocks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.
    11. Moris S. Strub & Duan Li, 2020. "Failing to Foresee the Updating of the Reference Point Leads to Time-Inconsistent Investment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 199-213, January.
    12. Lukas, Moritz & Nöth, Markus, 2021. "Interest rate fixation periods and reference points," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Fenghua Wen & Zhifang He & Xu Gong & Aiming Liu, 2014. "Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-9, April.
    14. Sarmiento, Julio & Rendón, Jairo & Sandoval, Juan S. & Cayon, Edgardo, 2019. "The disposition effect and the relevance of the reference period: Evidence among sophisticated investors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    15. Christopher Riley & Barbara Summers & Darren Duxbury, 2020. "Capital Gains Overhang with a Dynamic Reference Point," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4726-4745, October.
    16. Manel Baucells & Martin Weber & Frank Welfens, 2011. "Reference-Point Formation and Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(3), pages 506-519, March.
    17. Guney, Begum, 2014. "A theory of iterative choice in lists," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 26-32.
    18. Lukas, M. & Nöth, M., 2019. "Interest rate changes and borrower search behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 172-189.
    19. Yun Shi & Xiangyu Cui & Jing Yao & Duan Li, 2015. "Dynamic Trading with Reference Point Adaptation and Loss Aversion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 789-806, August.

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