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Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field

Author

Listed:
  • Rawley Heimer
  • Zwetelina Iliewa
  • Alex Imas
  • Martin Weber

Abstract

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We explore implications for theory and welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Rawley Heimer & Zwetelina Iliewa & Alex Imas & Martin Weber, 2025. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(1), pages 330-363, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:1:p:330-63
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210307
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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