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Deep Calibration of Interest Rates Model

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  • Mohamed Ben Alaya
  • Ahmed Kebaier
  • Djibril Sarr

Abstract

For any financial institution, it is essential to understand the behavior of interest rates. Despite the growing use of Deep Learning, for many reasons (expertise, ease of use, etc.), classic rate models such as CIR and the Gaussian family are still widely used. In this paper, we propose to calibrate the five parameters of the G2++ model using Neural Networks. Our first model is a Fully Connected Neural Network and is trained on covariances and correlations of Zero-Coupon and Forward rates. We show that covariances are more suited to the problem than correlations due to the effects of the unfeasible backpropagation phenomenon, which we analyze in this paper. The second model is a Convolutional Neural Network trained on Zero-Coupon rates with no further transformation. Our numerical tests show that our calibration based on deep learning outperforms the classic calibration method used as a benchmark. Additionally, our Deep Calibration approach is designed to be systematic. To illustrate this feature, we applied it to calibrate the popular CIR intensity model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ben Alaya & Ahmed Kebaier & Djibril Sarr, 2021. "Deep Calibration of Interest Rates Model," Papers 2110.15133, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2110.15133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
    2. Daniel Vela, 2013. "Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach," Borradores de Economia 10502, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    4. Giuseppe Orlando & Rosa Maria Mininni & Michele Bufalo, 2019. "Interest rates calibration with a CIR model," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 370-387, September.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Daniel Vela, 2013. "Forecasting Latin-American yield curves: An artificial neural network approach," Borradores de Economia 761, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Young Shin Kim & Hyangju Kim & Jaehyung Choi, 2023. "Deep Calibration With Artificial Neural Network: A Performance Comparison on Option Pricing Models," Papers 2303.08760, arXiv.org.

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