IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2112.07121.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference

Author

Listed:
  • Qihui Chen
  • Nikolai Roussanov
  • Xiaoliang Wang

Abstract

This paper introduces a simple and tractable sieve estimation of semiparametric conditional factor models with latent factors. We establish large-$N$-asymptotic properties of the estimators without requiring large $T$. We also develop a simple bootstrap procedure for conducting inference about the conditional pricing errors as well as the shapes of the factor loading functions. These results enable us to estimate conditional factor structure of a large set of individual assets by utilizing arbitrary nonlinear functions of a number of characteristics without the need to pre-specify the factors, while allowing us to disentangle the characteristics' role in capturing factor betas from alphas (i.e., undiversifiable risk from mispricing). We apply these methods to the cross-section of individual U.S. stock returns and find strong evidence of large nonzero pricing errors that combine to produce arbitrage portfolios with Sharpe ratios above 3. We also document a significant decline in apparent mispricing over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Qihui Chen & Nikolai Roussanov & Xiaoliang Wang, 2021. "Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models: Estimation and Inference," Papers 2112.07121, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.07121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.07121
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
    2. Qihui Chen & Zheng Fang, 2018. "Improved Inference on the Rank of a Matrix," Papers 1812.02337, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    4. Belloni, Alexandre & Chernozhukov, Victor & Chetverikov, Denis & Kato, Kengo, 2015. "Some new asymptotic theory for least squares series: Pointwise and uniform results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 345-366.
    5. Qihui Chen & Zheng Fang, 2019. "Improved inference on the rank of a matrix," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1787-1824, November.
    6. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    7. Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Large Sample Sieve Estimation of Semi-Nonparametric Models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 76, Elsevier.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    9. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    10. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2022. "Eigenvalue tests for the number of latent factors in short panels," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Qihui Chen, 2022. "Robust Estimation of Conditional Factor Models," Papers 2204.00801, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Liang & Pan, Haozi, 2023. "Estimation of characteristics-based quantile factor models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 37095, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Sung Hoon Choi, 2021. "Feasible Weighted Projected Principal Component Analysis for Factor Models with an Application to Bond Risk Premia," Papers 2108.10250, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    3. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance," Working Papers unige:125031, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    4. Fan, Jianqing & Liao, Yuan & Shi, Xiaofeng, 2015. "Risks of large portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 367-387.
    5. Yuefeng Han & Rong Chen & Dan Yang & Cun-Hui Zhang, 2020. "Tensor Factor Model Estimation by Iterative Projection," Papers 2006.02611, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2020. "Simpler Proofs for Approximate Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Papers 2008.00254, arXiv.org.
    7. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    8. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "A diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 503-521.
    9. Barigozzi, Matteo & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2020. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 5149-5187.
    10. Gu, Shihao & Kelly, Bryan & Xiu, Dacheng, 2021. "Autoencoder asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 429-450.
    11. Li, Kunpeng & Li, Qi & Lu, Lina, 2018. "Quasi maximum likelihood analysis of high dimensional constrained factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 574-612.
    12. Li, Degui, 2024. "Estimation of Large Dynamic Covariance Matrices: A Selective Review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 16-30.
    13. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    14. Yoshiki Nakajima & Naoya Sueishi, 2022. "Forecasting the Japanese macroeconomy using high-dimensional data," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 299-324, April.
    15. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2023. "Estimation of a dynamic multi-level factor model with possible long-range dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 405-430.
    16. Yunus Emre Ergemen, 2022. "Parametric Estimation of Long Memory in Factor Models," CREATES Research Papers 2022-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    17. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    18. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2023. "Approximate factor models with weaker loadings," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1893-1916.
    19. Joongyeub Yeo & George Papanicolaou, 2016. "Random matrix approach to estimation of high-dimensional factor models," Papers 1611.05571, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    20. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2021. "Predicting the VIX and the volatility risk premium: The role of short-run funding spreads Volatility Factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 366-398.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.07121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.