IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfinan/v75y2020i4p2179-2220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding Systematic Risk: A High‐Frequency Approach

Author

Listed:
  • MARKUS PELGER

Abstract

Based on a novel high‐frequency data set for a large number of firms, I estimate the time‐varying latent continuous and jump factors that explain individual stock returns. The factors are estimated using principal component analysis applied to a local volatility and jump covariance matrix. I find four stable continuous systematic factors, which can be well approximated by a market, oil, finance, and electricity portfolio, while there is only one stable jump market factor. The exposure of stocks to these risk factors and their explained variation is time‐varying. The four continuous factors carry an intraday risk premium that reverses overnight.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Pelger, 2020. "Understanding Systematic Risk: A High‐Frequency Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 2179-2220, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:75:y:2020:i:4:p:2179-2220
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12898
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12898
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jofi.12898?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Li, Sophia Zhengzi, 2013. "Jump tails, extreme dependencies, and the distribution of stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 307-324.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel C.A. & Podolskij, Mark, 2014. "Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 576-599.
    5. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Martina Mincheva, 2013. "Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(4), pages 603-680, September.
    6. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    7. Kozak, Serhiy & Nagel, Stefan & Santosh, Shrihari, 2020. "Shrinking the cross-section," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 271-292.
    8. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    9. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    10. Alexeev, Vitali & Dungey, Mardi & Yao, Wenying, 2017. "Time-varying continuous and jump betas: The role of firm characteristics and periods of stress," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    12. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Estimation of Jump Tails," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1727-1783, November.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Todorov, Viktor, 2016. "Roughing up beta: Continuous versus discontinuous betas and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 464-490.
    14. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. "A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-1291, September.
    15. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous‐Time Equity Return Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1239-1284, June.
    16. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Evaluating latent and observed factors in macroeconomics and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 507-537.
    17. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2021. "Asset Pricing with Omitted Factors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 1947-1990.
    18. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    19. Pelger, Markus, 2019. "Large-dimensional factor modeling based on high-frequency observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 23-42.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    21. Martin Lettau & Markus Pelger & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Factors That Fit the Time Series and Cross-Section of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2274-2325.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1367-1404 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D. & Tuttle, Laura & Zhang, Ying Jenny, 2012. "Paying Attention: Overnight Returns and the Hidden Cost of Buying at the Open," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 715-741, August.
    24. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
    25. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    26. Chamberlain, Gary, 1988. "Asset Pricing in Multiperiod Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1283-1300, November.
    27. Jianqing Fan & Alex Furger & Dacheng Xiu, 2016. "Incorporating Global Industrial Classification Standard Into Portfolio Allocation: A Simple Factor-Based Large Covariance Matrix Estimator With High-Frequency Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 489-503, October.
    28. Alexei Onatski, 2010. "Determining the Number of Factors from Empirical Distribution of Eigenvalues," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1004-1016, November.
    29. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    30. Reisman, Haim, 1992. "Intertemporal Arbitrage Pricing Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 105-122.
    31. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    32. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    33. Francisco Barillas & Jay Shanken, 2018. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 715-754, April.
    34. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    35. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    36. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Dacheng Xiu, 2019. "Principal Component Analysis of High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(525), pages 287-303, January.
    37. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Mingmian & Liao, Yuan & Yang, Xiye, 2023. "Uniform predictive inference for factor models with instrumental and idiosyncratic betas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    2. Hai-Chuan Xu & Fredj Jawadi & Jie Zhou & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Quantifying interconnectedness and centrality ranking among financial institutions with TVP-VAR framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 93-110, July.
    3. Chao, Xiangrui & Ran, Qin & Chen, Jia & Li, Tie & Qian, Qian & Ergu, Daji, 2022. "Regulatory technology (Reg-Tech) in financial stability supervision: Taxonomy, key methods, applications and future directions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Jorge Guijarro-Ordonez & Markus Pelger & Greg Zanotti, 2021. "Deep Learning Statistical Arbitrage," Papers 2106.04028, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    5. Alain-Philippe Fortin & Patrick Gagliardini & O. Scaillet, 2022. "Eigenvalue tests for the number of latent factors in short panels," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Systemic Tail Risk: High-Frequency Measurement, Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 2023-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "Macroprudential Regulation: A Risk Management Approach," Working Papers 765, DNB.
    8. Dinesh Gajurel & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao & Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan, 2020. "Jump Risk in the US Financial Sector," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 331-349, September.
    9. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Kunpeng Li & Guoshi Tong & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Scaled PCA: A New Approach to Dimension Reduction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 1678-1695, March.
    10. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
    11. Bibinger, Markus & Neely, Christopher & Winkelmann, Lars, 2019. "Estimation of the discontinuous leverage effect: Evidence from the NASDAQ order book," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 158-184.
    12. Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2023. "Does machine learning help private sectors to alarm crises? Evidence from China’s currency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 611(C).
    13. Xiaolu Wei & Hongbing Ouyang, 2023. "Forecasting Carbon Price Using Double Shrinkage Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-20, January.
    14. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "A new unique information share measure with applications on cross-listed Chinese banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Sun, Yucheng & Xu, Wen & Zhang, Chuanhai, 2023. "Identifying latent factors based on high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 251-270.
    16. Zhou, Dong-hai & Liu, Xiao-xing, 2023. "Do world stock markets “jump” together? A measure of high-frequency volatility risk spillover networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Aleksy Leeuwenkamp & Wentao Hu, 2023. "New general dependence measures: construction, estimation and application to high-frequency stock returns," Papers 2309.00025, arXiv.org.
    18. Choi, Jungjun & Yang, Xiye, 2022. "Asymptotic properties of correlation-based principal component analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 1-18.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pelger, Markus, 2019. "Large-dimensional factor modeling based on high-frequency observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 23-42.
    2. Lettau, Martin & Pelger, Markus, 2020. "Estimating latent asset-pricing factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 1-31.
    3. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
    4. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    5. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Iason Kynigakis, 2021. "Machine Learning and Factor-Based Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2107.13866, arXiv.org.
    6. Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
    7. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Xiu, Dacheng, 2017. "Using principal component analysis to estimate a high dimensional factor model with high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 384-399.
    8. Sun, Yucheng & Xu, Wen & Zhang, Chuanhai, 2023. "Identifying latent factors based on high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 251-270.
    9. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    10. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2017. "Asset Pricing and Excess Returns over the Market Return," Working Papers 2017-12, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    11. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Todorov, Viktor, 2016. "Roughing up beta: Continuous versus discontinuous betas and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 464-490.
    13. Bai, Jushan & Ando, Tomohiro, 2013. "Multifactor asset pricing with a large number of observable risk factors and unobservable common and group-specific factors," MPRA Paper 52785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    14. Tim Bollerslev & Sophia Zhengzi Li & Viktor Todorov, 2014. "Roughing up Beta: Continuous vs. Discontinuous Betas, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2014-48, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Goyal, Amit & Pérignon, Christophe & Villa, Christophe, 2008. "How common are common return factors across the NYSE and Nasdaq?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 252-271, December.
    16. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Inference on Risk Premia in the Presence of Omitted Factors," NBER Working Papers 23527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Sainan Jin & Liangjun Su & Yonghui Zhang, 2015. "Nonparametric testing for anomaly effects in empirical asset pricing models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-36, February.
    18. Dai, Chaoxing & Lu, Kun & Xiu, Dacheng, 2019. "Knowing factors or factor loadings, or neither? Evaluating estimators of large covariance matrices with noisy and asynchronous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 43-79.
    19. Ahn, Seung C. & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2010. "GMM estimation of the number of latent factors: With application to international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 783-802, September.
    20. Fan, Jianqing & Liao, Yuan & Shi, Xiaofeng, 2015. "Risks of large portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 367-387.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:75:y:2020:i:4:p:2179-2220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.