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Social Risk and the Dimensionality of Intentions

Author

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  • Jeffrey V. Butler

    (Department of Economics, E. J. Ourso College of Business, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803)

  • Joshua B. Miller

    (Department of Decision Sciences and IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University, 20136 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Previous research has documented a behavioral distinction between “social risk,” or risk caused by human factors, and natural risk. In particular, people tend to demand a premium on the probability of a favorable outcome in order to expose themselves to a social source of risk rather than a natural source of risk. Several explanations for what drives this social risk premium have been offered—most prominently, (i)an aversion to a counterparty’s potentially malign intentions and (ii) a more general aversion to ceding control to someone with conflicting interests. We propose that a fundamental determinant of the social risk premium may relate to a counterparty’s capacity to engage in intentional action. We employ a between-subjects experimental design in which we manipulate subjects’ capacity for intentional action. Our design allows us to identify the component of the social risk premium related to an aversion to betrayal, independent of any aversion to ceding control. Furthermore, our results show that intentions are a crucial determinant of the social risk premium. We identify factors that eliminate, and may even change the sign of, the social risk premium. Our results contribute to our understanding of the factors that influence the perception of social risk and have implications for optimal contract design in a wide variety of situations involving social risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey V. Butler & Joshua B. Miller, 2018. "Social Risk and the Dimensionality of Intentions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2787-2796, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:64:y:2018:i:6:p:2787-2796
    DOI: 10.287/mnsc.2016.2694
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary E. Bolton & Christoph Feldhaus & Axel Ockenfels, 2016. "Social Interaction Promotes Risk Taking in a Stag Hunt Game," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 17(3), pages 409-423, August.
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    4. Jason A Aimone & Daniel Houser, 2011. "Beneficial Betrayal Aversion," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-5, March.
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    6. Simone Quercia, 2016. "Eliciting and measuring betrayal aversion using the BDM mechanism," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 2(1), pages 48-59, May.
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    8. Andrew D. Gershoff & Jonathan J. Koehler, 2011. "Safety First? The Role of Emotion in Safety Product Betrayal Aversion," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 140-150.
    9. Björn Bartling & Ernst Fehr & Holger Herz, 2014. "The Intrinsic Value of Decision Rights," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2005-2039, November.
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    12. Jason Aimone & Sheryl Ball & Brooks King-Casas, 2015. "The Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task: An Individual Level Betrayal Aversion Measure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, September.
    13. Birnberg, Jacob G. & Hoffman, Vicky B. & Yuen, Susana, 2008. "The accountability demand for information in China and the US - A research note," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 20-32, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ertac, Seda & Gumren, Mert & Gurdal, Mehmet Y., 2020. "Demand for decision autonomy and the desire to avoid responsibility in risky environments: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2021. "Social Risk Effects: The 'Experience of Social Risk' Factor," Working Papers 0704, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Polipciuc, Maria, 2022. "Group identity and betrayal: decomposing trust," ROA Research Memorandum 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    4. Sofianos, Andis, 2022. "Self-reported & revealed trust: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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