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The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach

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  • Anna Persson

    (Department of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    (Department of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper analyses the net barter terms of trade measured by the primary commodity price index relative to the indexes of unit values of export of manufactures from industrial countries. The starting point is that the series is stationary but possibly non-linear. Statistical tests indicate that the logarithmed series is non-linear and we estimate a Smooth Transition Autoregressive model to describe the process. The dynamics of the model are illustrated by use of parametrically estimated local spectra and generalized impulse response functions. Our model encompasses models from several previous studies, and our conclusion is that the starting point very much decides the outcome. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:8:y:2003:i:1:p:81-97
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.198
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    2. Boris Petkov, 2018. "Natural Resource Abundance: Is it a Blessing or is it a Curse," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 25-56, September.
    3. Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Holt, Matthew T., 2006. "Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21405, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer & Kulaksizoglu, Sebnem, 2009. "The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis," MPRA Paper 23780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hany Fahmy, 2014. "Modelling nonlinearities in commodity prices using smooth transition regression models with exogenous transition variables," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(4), pages 577-600, November.
    6. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
    7. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    8. G. K. Randolph TAN, 2004. "Long Memory in Import and Export Price Inflation and Persistence of Shocks to the Terms of Trade," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 732, Econometric Society.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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