Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21405
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- James G. MacKinnon, 2002.
"Bootstrap inference in econometrics,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005.
"Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
- Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination," Textos para discussão 485, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 561, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Nov 2004.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, "undated". "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
- Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999.
"Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Anna Persson & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003.
"The net barter terms of trade: A smooth transition approach,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 81-97.
- Persson, Anna & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999. "The Net Barter Terms Of Trade : A Smooth Transition Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 335, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Z. Lomnicki, 1961. "Tests for departure from normality in the case of linear stochastic processes," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 37-62, December.
- Tae‐Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, September.
- Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003.
"The terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century,"
Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
- Jose Antonio Ocampo & Maria Angela Parra, 2004. "The Terms Of Trade For Commodities In The Twentieth Century," International Trade 0402006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- Hall, Anthony D. & Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "A nonlinear time series model of El Niño," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 263, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Javier León & Raimundo Soto, 1997.
"Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices,"
Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
- Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995. "Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1406, The World Bank.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003.
"Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-121, January.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 376, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Powell, Andrew, 1991.
"Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
- Powell, A., 1989. "Commodity And Developing Country Terms Of Trade, What Does The Long Run Show?," Economics Series Working Papers 9980, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998.
"Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Enders/Granger JBES(1998)on threshold unit roots," Statistical Software Components RTZ00054, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Zanias, George P., 2005. "Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-59, October.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
- Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
- Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, 2016.
"Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade inamodelof cumulative causation andstructural change,"
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.
- Araujo, Ricardo, 2013. "Assessing the Dynamics of Terms of Trade in a Model of Cumulative Causation and Structural Change," MPRA Paper 46049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009.
"The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018.
"Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
- Vincent Geronimi & Armand Taranco, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Post-Print hal-02509926, HAL.
- Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
- Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
- Winkelried, Diego, 2021.
"Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set,"
Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
- Winkelried, Diego, 2017. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Working Papers 2017-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014.
"Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, November.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, November.
- Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013.
"The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach,"
Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
- Jesús Otero & Ana María Iregui, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Panel Data Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: A panel data approach," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158682, Agricultural Economics Society.
- Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
- Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
- Cécile Couharde & Vincent Géronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012.
"Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés ?,"
Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 13-34.
- Cécile Couharde & Vincent Geronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012. "Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés?," Post-Print hal-01385858, HAL.
- Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010.
"Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
- Mubariz Hasanov & Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20123, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
- Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
- Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017.
"Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
- Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2015. "Unemployment Hysteresis and Structural Change in Europe," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 266, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
- Kurmas Akdogan, 2016. "Unemployment Hysteresis and Structural Change in Europe," Working Papers 1618, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
- Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2019. "Asymmetric adjustment, non-linearity and housing price bubbles: New international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
- Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
- Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
More about this item
Keywords
Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.