IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2004-202.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Gabriela Inchauste
  • Mr. Bernardin Akitoby
  • Mr. Benedict J. Clements
  • Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

We examine the short- and long-term movements of government spending relative to output in 51 countries. We find that in the short term, the main components of government spending increase with output in about half of the sample countries, with some variation across spending categories and countries. Further, we find that there is a long-term relationship between government spending and output (in line with "Wagner's law") for the majority of countries for at least one spending aggregate. In the short term, we find that power dispersion and government size typically dampen the positive response of government spending to output. Output volatility and financial risk, on the other hand, contribute to the procylicality of government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Gabriela Inchauste & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2004/202, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17728
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Riccardo Fiorito, 1997. "Stylized Facts of Government Finance in the G-7," IMF Working Papers 1997/142, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Adriana Arreaza & Bent E. Sgrensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 59-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    6. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
    7. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    9. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    11. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    12. Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Redistribution and Non-Consumption Smoothing in an Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 411-433.
    13. James M. Poterba & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote99-1.
    14. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    15. W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, March.
    16. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    17. Payne, James E & Ewing, Bradley T, 1996. "International Evidence on Wagner's Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 258-274.
    18. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    20. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    21. Tornell, Aaron & Lane, Philip R., 1998. "Are windfalls a curse?: A non-representative agent model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-112, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    2. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    3. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Arze del Granado, Javier & Gupta, Sanjeev & Hajdenberg, Alejandro, 2013. "Is Social Spending Procyclical? Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-27.
    5. Mackiewicz, Michał, 2008. "Determinants of Cyclicality of Fiscal Surpluses in The OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 16034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Alejandro Hajdenberg & Mr. Javier Arze del Granado, 2010. "Is Social Spending Procyclical?," IMF Working Papers 2010/234, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sean J. Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2013. "The Cyclical Relationships Between South Africa's Net Capital Inflows and Fiscal and Monetary Policies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 64-83, March.
    8. Asif Ahmad & Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2021. "Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1687-1701, October.
    9. Christos Koulovatianos & Leonard J. Mirman, 2004. "Endogenous Public Policy and Long-Run Growth," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 2-2004, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    10. Braun, Miguel & Di Gresia, Luciano, 2003. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1463, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Abdurohman & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2017. "The Behavior Of Fiscal Policy In Indonesia In Response To Economic Cycles," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 377-401, June.
    12. Christos Koulovatianos & Leonard J. Mirman, 2005. "Endogenous Public Policy and Long-Run Growth: Some Simple Analytics," Vienna Economics Papers 0502, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    13. Alesina, A. & Passalacqua, A., 2016. "The Political Economy of Government Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2599-2651, Elsevier.
    14. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Hacia un sistema de seguro social eficaz en América Latina: la importancia de una política fiscal anticíclica," Research Department Publications 4334, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    17. Wirginia Doryñ & Micha³ Mackiewicz & Dorota Wawrzyniak, 2018. "The Role of Institutions in Determining the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy," Lodz Economics Working Papers 2/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    18. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    19. Brüeckner,Markus & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao, 2015. "The effects of volatility, fiscal policy cyclicality and financial development on growth : evidence for the Eastern Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7507, The World Bank.
    20. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2010. "The Euro and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 287-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.