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The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation

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  • Lixin Cai
  • Guyonne Kalb
  • Yi-Ping Tseng
  • Ha Vu

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse the work incentive effects of a change in the Australian tax and transfer system on lone parents in July 2000. To evaluate the effect of the total change only, microsimulation can be used; but for a subgroup of lone parents, a few components of this policy change can be analysed through two alternative approaches - microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation. Both approaches examine the effects on the probability of employment and on average working hours. The results from microsimulation show that the combined changes introduced in July 2000 - involving reduced withdrawl rates, changed family payments and lower income tax rates - have increased labour supply for lone parents to a moderate extent. The estimated effect on average working hours when using microsimulation is very close to the effect estimated in a quasi-experimental approach using matching techniques to control for alternative influences. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb & Yi-Ping Tseng & Ha Vu, 2008. "The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 285-325, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:29:y:2008:i:2:p:285-325
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    1. Christl, Michael & De Poli, Silvia & Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė, Viginta, 2022. "The lock-in effect of marriage: Work incentives after saying, "Yes, I do."," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1142, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Haigner Stefan & Höchtl Wolfgang & Schneider Friedrich Georg & Wakolbinger Florian & Jenewein Stefan, 2012. "Keep On Working: Unconditional Basic Income in the Lab," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb, 2022. "Understanding the rising trend in female labour force participation," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 341-363, December.
    4. Yin King Fok & Sung-Hee Jeon & Roger Wilkins, 2009. "Does Part-Time Employment Help or Hinder Lone Mothers Movements into Full-Time Employment?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n25, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Olivier Bargain & Karina Doorley, 2016. "The Effect of Social Benefits on Youth Employment: Combining RD and a Behavioral Model," Post-Print hal-03894917, HAL.
    6. Henk-Wim Boer & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2023. "Analysing tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands using structural models and natural experiments," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 179-209, January.
    7. Thoresen, Thor O. & Vattø, Trine E., 2015. "Validation of the discrete choice labor supply model by methods of the new tax responsiveness literature," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-53.
    8. John Creedy & Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Optimal Marginal Income Tax Reforms: A Microsimulation Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    10. Rachel Ong & Gavin Wood & Melek Cigdem, 2013. "Work incentives and decisions to remain in paid work in Australia," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1312, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    11. Bargain, Olivier & Doorley, Karina, 2013. "Putting Structure on the RD Design: Social Transfers and Youth Inactivity in France," IZA Discussion Papers 7508, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Viginta Ivaskaite-Tamosiune, 2022. "The lock-in effect of marriage: Work incentives after saying, “Yes, I do.â€," Working Papers 615, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    13. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Guyonne Kalb, 2010. "Modelling Labour Supply Responses in Australia and New Zealand," Chapters, in: Iris Claus & Norman Gemmell & Michelle Harding & David White (ed.), Tax Reform in Open Economies, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Alan S Duncan & Mark N Harris & Anthony Harris & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2013. "The Influence of Psychological Well-being, Ill Health and Health Shocks on Single Parents' Labour Supply," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1307, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    16. de Boer, Henk-Wim & Jongen, Egbert L. W., 2020. "Analysing Tax-Benefit Reforms in the Netherlands: Using Structural Models and Natural Experiments," IZA Discussion Papers 12892, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Hielke BUDDELMEYER & Guyonne KALB, 2008. "Labour Supply and Welfare Participation in the Australian Population: Using Observed Job Search to Account for Involuntary Unemployment," EcoMod2008 23800020, EcoMod.
    18. John Creedy & Joseph Mercante & Penny Mok, 2018. "The Labour Market Effects of ‘Working for Families’ In New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(2), pages 211-231, June.
    19. Guyonne Kalb & Thor Thoresen, 2010. "A comparison of family policy designs of Australia and Norway using microsimulation models," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 255-287, June.
    20. Penny Mok & Joseph Mercante, 2014. "Working for Families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/18, New Zealand Treasury.
    21. Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2013. "Validation of structural labor supply model by the elasticity of taxable income," Discussion Papers 738, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    22. Ha Vu, 2014. "The Relationship between Labour Market Conditions and Welfare Receipt in Australia: A Stock-Flow Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 507-525, December.
    23. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Viginta Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė, 2022. "The Lock-in Effect of Marriage: Work Incentives after Saying “I Do”," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, October.

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