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Analysing tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands using structural models and natural experiments

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  • Henk-Wim Boer

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Egbert L. W. Jongen

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

We combine the strengths of structural models and natural experiments in an analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands. We first estimate structural discrete-choice models for labour supply. Next, we simulate key past reforms and compare the predictions of the structural model with the outcomes of quasi-experimental studies. The structural model predicts the treatment effects well. The structural model then allows us to conduct counterfactual policy analysis. Policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labour supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Henk-Wim Boer & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2023. "Analysing tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands using structural models and natural experiments," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 179-209, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:36:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-021-00852-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00852-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Ray Rees & Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2023. "Alternatives to Paying Child Benefit to the Rich: Means‐Testing or Higher Tax?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 328-354, September.
    2. de Boer, Henk-Wim & Jongen, Egbert L. W. & Koot, Patrick, 2023. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Using Tax Incentives to Stimulate Dual-Earner Couples," IZA Discussion Papers 16702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Gabriele Mari, 2024. "Less for more? Cuts to child benefits, family adjustments, and long-run child outcomes in larger families," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-27, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural models; Natural experiments; Tax-benefit reform; Netherlands;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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