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Global macroeconomic balances for mid-century climate analyses

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Abstract

In this document the economic balances for the Baseline scenario used in the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2018 are presented. The Baseline scenario represents a projection of the world economy with corresponding energy demand and GHGs emissions under the assumption of current climate and energy policies and also realization of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in line with Paris agreement. As this scenario still does not allow avoiding catastrophic climate change in the future, it is used as a reference to compare alternative scenarios with more stringent policy measures. Economic balances are supplemented by energy balances, where the latter are coming from energy models, but are consistent with economic data. Finally we show GHGs evolution over time that comes from economic activity presented in the Baseline. The procedure that was used to generate Baseline scenario is called PIRAMID which stands for: Platform to Integrate, Reconcile and Align Model-based Input-output Data. PIRAMID is a new methodology to project Multi-Regional Input-Output tables over time. This approach allows for integrating data from external models and databases. The result is a series of consistent and transparent IO tables.

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  • REY LOS SANTOS Luis & WOJTOWICZ Krzysztof & TAMBA Marie & VANDYCK Toon & WEITZEL Matthias & SAVEYN Bert & TEMURSHO Umed, 2018. "Global macroeconomic balances for mid-century climate analyses," JRC Research Reports JRC113981, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc113981
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113981
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    1. Kimon Keramidas & Stephane Tchung-Ming & Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Jacques Despres & Andreas Schmitz & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Burkhard Schade & B, 2018. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy," JRC Research Reports JRC113446, Joint Research Centre.
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    1. Rob Dellink & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Shaping Baseline Scenarios of Economic Activity with CGE Models: Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    3. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    4. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2022. "Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. KERAMIDAS Kimon & FOSSE Florian & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana & DOWLING Paul & GARAFFA Rafael & DESPRÉS Jacques & RUSS Hans Peter & SCHADE Burkhard & SCHMITZ Andreas & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & VANDYCK Toon & WEIT, 2021. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2021: Advancing towards climate neutrality," JRC Research Reports JRC126767, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    7. Umed Temursho & Manuel Alejandro Cardenete & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Luis Rey & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Projecting input-output tables for model baselines," JRC Research Reports JRC120513, Joint Research Centre.

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    Keywords

    Baseline; CGE; Input-Output tables; Macroeconomic projections;
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