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Mapping the path forward: A prospective model of natural resource depletion and sustainable development

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  • Ayad, Fayssal

Abstract

This paper introduces a sustainable development model of natural resource depletion that quantifies the optimal relationship between the two. Adopting a nested constant elasticity-of-substitution production function with easy substitution between capital and natural resource depletion, the derived model that was simulated prospectively for the time horizon 2020–2100 reveals a non-linear pattern of natural resource depletion, with a minimum of 0.735 million tons, projected for the year 2100. Sustainable development exhibits a quasi-inverse U shape, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of sustainable development. The model predicts two distinct relationships between sustainable development and natural resource depletion, depending on the existence of a 6 billion tons threshold for natural resource depletion. Supported by the Regression Discontinuity Design, a positive relationship was established below the threshold point in opposition to a negative association above this cutoff level. This model is a valuable tool for policymakers to monitor and inform sustainable development policies with regard to natural resource depletion.

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  • Ayad, Fayssal, 2023. "Mapping the path forward: A prospective model of natural resource depletion and sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pa:s0301420723007274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104016
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