IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v259y2022ics0360544222018618.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nationwide policymaking strategies to prevent future electricity crises in developing countries using data-driven forecasting and fuzzy-SWOT analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Safder, Usman
  • Hai, Tra Nguyen
  • Loy-Benitez, Jorge
  • Yoo, ChangKyoo

Abstract

Over the past decades, forecasting electricity demand has been crucial in energy planning and power distribution management to establish sustainable strategies in undeveloped countries. This work proposes an integrated approach to evaluate Pakistan's energy sector and holistically investigate electricity-load strategies to prioritize them and prevent future electricity crises. This paper proposes a renewable energy technologies-based system design to eliminate energy shortfalls. Deep learning models can predict fluctuating variation in energy consumption, crucial for designing renewable energy systems. The strengths – weaknesses – opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis identified relevant factors and sub-factors, while the fuzzy-TOPSIS methodology prioritized alternative strategies. The results show that driving the nation to the functionality of an energy hub by sufficiently using its geostrategic location within the regional cooperation framework is the critical dominant factor. Besides, improving the country's investment environment was the least favored priority. Baluchistan was found to have the highest potential for wind energy, with an ability to generate 3270 MWh/year through wind power.

Suggested Citation

  • Safder, Usman & Hai, Tra Nguyen & Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "Nationwide policymaking strategies to prevent future electricity crises in developing countries using data-driven forecasting and fuzzy-SWOT analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:259:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222018618
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124962
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222018618
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124962?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guefano, Serge & Tamba, Jean Gaston & Azong, Tchitile Emmanuel Wilfried & Monkam, Louis, 2021. "Forecast of electricity consumption in the Cameroonian residential sector by Grey and vector autoregressive models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Prabatha, Tharindu & Karunathilake, Hirushie & Mohammadpour Shotorbani, Amin & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Community-level decentralized energy system planning under uncertainty: A comparison of mathematical models for strategy development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Safder, Usman & Lim, Juin Yau & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Heo, SungKy & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "Optimal configuration and economic analysis of PRO-retrofitted industrial networks for sustainable energy production and material recovery considering uncertainties: Bioethanol and sugar mill case stu," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 797-816.
    4. Naqvi, Muhammad & Yan, Jinyue & Dahlquist, Erik & Naqvi, Salman Raza, 2017. "Off-grid electricity generation using mixed biomass compost: A scenario-based study with sensitivity analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 363-370.
    5. Ur Rehman, Syed Aziz & Cai, Yanpeng & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Walasai, Gordhan Das & Nafees, Mohammad, 2019. "Energy-environment-economy nexus in Pakistan: Lessons from a PAK-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 200-211.
    6. Rodriguez, Rolando A. & Becker, Sarah & Greiner, Martin, 2015. "Cost-optimal design of a simplified, highly renewable pan-European electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 658-668.
    7. Farooqui, Suhail Zaki, 2014. "Prospects of renewables penetration in the energy mix of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 693-700.
    8. Shaikh, Faheemullah & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "The diagnosis of an electricity crisis and alternative energy development in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1172-1185.
    9. Janghorban Esfahani, Iman & Lee, SeungChul & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2015. "Extended-power pinch analysis (EPoPA) for integration of renewable energy systems with battery/hydrogen storages," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Moiz, Abdul & Kawasaki, Akiyuki & Koike, Toshio & Shrestha, Maheswor, 2018. "A systematic decision support tool for robust hydropower site selection in poorly gauged basins," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 309-321.
    11. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Abbas, Jaffar & Tufail, Muhammad, 2021. "Revisiting electricity consumption, price, and real GDP: A modified sectoral level analysis from Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Tariq, Shahzeb & Safder, Usman & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "Exergy-based weighted optimization and smart decision-making for renewable energy systems considering economics, reliability, risk, and environmental assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Muneer, T. & Asif, M., 2007. "Prospects for secure and sustainable electricity supply for Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 654-671, May.
    14. Asif, M., 2009. "Sustainable energy options for Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 903-909, May.
    15. Prajapati, Vijaykumar K. & Mahajan, Vasundhara, 2021. "Reliability assessment and congestion management of power system with energy storage system and uncertain renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    16. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2012. "Conditional dynamic forecast of electrical energy consumption requirements in Ghana by 2020: A comparison of ARDL and PAM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 367-380.
    17. Scott, Ian J. & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Botterud, Audun & Silva, Carlos A., 2021. "Long-term uncertainties in generation expansion planning: Implications for electricity market modelling and policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    18. Jiao, P.H. & Chen, J.J. & Peng, K. & Zhao, Y.L. & Xin, K.F., 2020. "Multi-objective mean-semi-entropy model for optimal standalone micro-grid planning with uncertain renewable energy resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    19. Ayodele, T.R. & Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O. & Odigie, O. & Munda, J.L., 2018. "A multi-criteria GIS based model for wind farm site selection using interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: The case study of Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1853-1869.
    20. Liu, Guiwen & Zheng, Saina & Xu, Pengpeng & Zhuang, Taozhi, 2018. "An ANP-SWOT approach for ESCOs industry strategies in Chinese building sectors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 90-99.
    21. Safder, Usman & Nguyen, Hai-Tra & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2021. "Energetic, economic, exergetic, and exergorisk (4E) analyses of a novel multi-generation energy system assisted with bagasse-biomass gasifier and multi-effect desalination unit," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    22. Muh, Erasmus & Amara, Sofiane & Tabet, Fouzi, 2018. "Sustainable energy policies in Cameroon: A holistic overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3420-3429.
    23. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Mohammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Valasai, Gordhan Das & Shaikh, Faheemullah & Waris, M., 2017. "A review of energy and power planning and policies of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-127.
    24. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    25. Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Safder, Usman & Nguyen, Hai-Tra & Li, Qian & Woo, TaeYong & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2021. "Techno-economic assessment and smart management of an integrated fuel cell-based energy system with absorption chiller for power, hydrogen, heating, and cooling in an electrified railway network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    26. Grainger, Corbett A. & Zhang, Fan, 2019. "Electricity shortages and manufacturing productivity in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1000-1008.
    27. Mostafaeipour, Ali & Alvandimanesh, Marzieh & Najafi, Fatemeh & Issakhov, Alibek, 2021. "Identifying challenges and barriers for development of solar energy by using fuzzy best-worst method: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    28. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Zafar Ali Siyal & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Rizwan Fazal & Saif Ur Rehman Kashif, 2019. "Cleaner and Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: Lessons Learnt from the Pak-TIMES Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, December.
    29. Kazmi, Hussain & Mehmood, Fahad & Tao, Zhenmin & Riaz, Zainab & Driesen, Johan, 2019. "Electricity load-shedding in Pakistan: Unintended consequences, opportunities and policy recommendations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 411-417.
    30. Hashemizadeh, Ali & Ju, Yanbing & Bamakan, Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "Renewable energy investment risk assessment in belt and road initiative countries under uncertainty conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    31. Syed Ahsan Ali Shah & Gordhan Das Valasai & Asif Ali Memon & Abdul Nasir Laghari & Nabi Bux Jalbani & Jody L. Strait, 2018. "Techno-Economic Analysis of Solar PV Electricity Supply to Rural Areas of Balochistan, Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    32. Arshad, Ameena & Zakaria, Muhammad & Junyang, Xi, 2016. "Energy prices and economic growth in Pakistan: A macro-econometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 25-33.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Safder, Usman & Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2024. "Techno-economic assessment of a novel integrated multigeneration system to synthesize e-methanol and green hydrogen in a carbon-neutral context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hussain, Jafar, 2023. "Energy sustainability under the COVID-19 outbreak: Electricity break-off policy to minimize electricity market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2022. "Graph theoretic approach to expose the energy-induced crisis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Rizwan Fazal & Gordhan Das Walasai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, 2017. "An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Tahir, Z.R. & Asim, Muhammad, 2018. "Surface measured solar radiation data and solar energy resource assessment of Pakistan: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2839-2861.
    4. Tariq, Shahzeb & Safder, Usman & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "Exergy-based weighted optimization and smart decision-making for renewable energy systems considering economics, reliability, risk, and environmental assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Mazhar H. Baloch & Safdar A. Abro & Ghulam Sarwar Kaloi & Nayyar H. Mirjat & Sohaib Tahir & M. Haroon Nadeem & Mehr Gul & Zubair A. Memon & Mahendar Kumar, 2017. "A Research on Electricity Generation from Wind Corridors of Pakistan (Two Provinces): A Technical Proposal for Remote Zones," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-31, September.
    6. Leezna Saleem & Imran Ahmad Siddiqui & Intikhab Ulfat, 2021. "The prioritization of renewable energy technologies in Pakistan: An urgent need," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(1), pages 81-103.
    7. Sophia Akhtar & M Khurram Hashmi & Ishaq Ahmad & Rizwan Raza, 2018. "Advances and significance of solar reflectors in solar energy technology in Pakistan," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(4), pages 435-455, June.
    8. Wajahat Ullah Khan Tareen & Zuha Anjum & Nabila Yasin & Leenah Siddiqui & Ifzana Farhat & Suheel Abdullah Malik & Saad Mekhilef & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Ben Horan & Mohamed Darwish & Muhammad Aamir &, 2018. "The Prospective Non-Conventional Alternate and Renewable Energy Sources in Pakistan—A Focus on Biomass Energy for Power Generation, Transportation, and Industrial Fuel," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-49, September.
    9. Ahmad, Hafsa & Jamil, Faisal, 2024. "Investigating power outages in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Rizwan Fazal & Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti & Atiq Ur Rehman & Fariha Arooj & Umar Hayat, 2021. "A Cross-Sectoral Investigation of the Energy–Environment–Economy Causal Nexus in Pakistan: Policy Suggestions for Improved Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Aized, Tauseef & Shahid, Muhammad & Bhatti, Amanat Ali & Saleem, Muhammad & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2018. "Energy security and renewable energy policy analysis of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 155-169.
    12. Loy-Benitez, Jorge & Safder, Usman & Nguyen, Hai-Tra & Li, Qian & Woo, TaeYong & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2021. "Techno-economic assessment and smart management of an integrated fuel cell-based energy system with absorption chiller for power, hydrogen, heating, and cooling in an electrified railway network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    13. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Gordhan Das Walasai & Izaz Ali Shah & Sharafat Ali, 2017. "The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.
    14. Sadiqa, Ayesha & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Energy transition roadmap towards 100% renewable energy and role of storage technologies for Pakistan by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 518-533.
    15. Ashfaq, Asad & Ianakiev, Anton, 2018. "Features of fully integrated renewable energy atlas for Pakistan; wind, solar and cooling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 14-27.
    16. Solangi, Yasir Ahmed & Longsheng, Cheng & Shah, Syed Ahsan Ali, 2021. "Assessing and overcoming the renewable energy barriers for sustainable development in Pakistan: An integrated AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 209-222.
    17. Safder, Usman & Tariq, Shahzeb & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2022. "Multilevel optimization framework to support self-sustainability of industrial processes for energy/material recovery using circular integration concept," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    18. Khatri, Krishan Lal & Muhammad, Amir Raza & Soomro, Shakir Ali & Tunio, Nadeem Ahmed & Ali, Muhammad Mubarak, 2021. "Investigation of possible solid waste power potential for distributed generation development to overcome the power crises of Karachi city," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    19. Naqvi, Salman Raza & Jamshaid, Sana & Naqvi, Muhammad & Farooq, Wasif & Niazi, Muhammad Bilal Khan & Aman, Zaeem & Zubair, Muhammad & Ali, Majid & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Inayat, Abrar & Afzal, Waheed, 2018. "Potential of biomass for bioenergy in Pakistan based on present case and future perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1247-1258.
    20. Mahmood, Muhammad H. & Sultan, Muhammad & Miyazaki, Takahiko & Koyama, Shigeru & Maisotsenko, Valeriy S., 2016. "Overview of the Maisotsenko cycle – A way towards dew point evaporative cooling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 537-555.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:259:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222018618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.