IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v9y2017i4p606-d95708.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperatures, Heatwaves, and the Urban Heat Island in Athens, Greece

Author

Listed:
  • John Paravantis

    (Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus 185 34, Greece)

  • Mat Santamouris

    (The Anitta Lawrence Chair of High Performance Architecture, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Constantinos Cartalis

    (Department of Environmental Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 157 72, Greece)

  • Chrysanthi Efthymiou

    (Department of Environmental Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 157 72, Greece)

  • Nikoletta Kontoulis

    (Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus 185 34, Greece)

Abstract

: Climate change looms as the biggest threat of the 21st century, and its effect on urban mortality is exacerbated by urban heat islands. This study analyzes the impact of high temperatures, heatwaves, and the urban heat island on the cardiovascular and respiratory mortality of people over 65 years of age for the years 2002 to 2012. The area of application is Athens, Greece, an urban agglomeration experiencing an urban heat island of high intensity. The correlation of the daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality count of people over 65 years of age with various temperature measures confirmed a U-shaped exposure response curve, with fewer deaths in the range of moderate temperatures. At high and very high temperatures, this mortality increased by 20 to 35% correspondingly, at a 99.9% significance level. Mortality was further investigated with ordinary least squares, Poisson, and negative binomial times series models, which, although suffering from poor fit, showed a one-day lag for the maximum temperature effect on mortality. Finally, cluster analysis for observations confined to May to September, confirmed by multiple discriminant analysis, showed the existence of six clusters, with the highest excess mortality count of 23% for the cluster that included the hottest days and 20.6% for the heatwave cluster. To this end, it is recommended that policies target high ambient temperatures and heatwaves as a priority.

Suggested Citation

  • John Paravantis & Mat Santamouris & Constantinos Cartalis & Chrysanthi Efthymiou & Nikoletta Kontoulis, 2017. "Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperatures, Heatwaves, and the Urban Heat Island in Athens, Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:606-:d:95708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/4/606/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/4/606/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Baiocchi & Walter Distaso, 2003. "GRETL: Econometric software for the GNU generation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 105-110.
    2. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2015:p:148 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christoph Schär & Pier Luigi Vidale & Daniel Lüthi & Christoph Frei & Christian Häberli & Mark A. Liniger & Christof Appenzeller, 2004. "The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6972), pages 332-336, January.
    4. Rainer Winkelmann, 2015. "Counting on count data models," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 148-148, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Saeed Khan & Riccardo Paolini & Mattheos Santamouris & Peter Caccetta, 2020. "Exploring the Synergies between Urban Overheating and Heatwaves (HWs) in Western Sydney," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Ioanna Kyprianou & Despina Serghides & Harriet Thomson & Salvatore Carlucci, 2023. "Learning from the Past: The Impacts of Economic Crises on Energy Poverty Mortality and Rural Vulnerability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Jack Ngarambe & Mattheos Santamouris & Geun Young Yun, 2022. "The Impact of Urban Warming on the Mortality of Vulnerable Populations in Seoul," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Michael Gräf & Markus Immitzer & Peter Hietz & Rosemarie Stangl, 2021. "Water-Stressed Plants Do Not Cool: Leaf Surface Temperature of Living Wall Plants under Drought Stress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-11, April.
    5. Ido Nevat & Gloria Pignatta & Lea A. Ruefenacht & Juan Angel Acero, 2021. "A decision support tool for climate-informed and socioeconomic urban design," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7627-7651, May.
    6. Kyriaki Psistaki & Ioannis M. Dokas & Anastasia K. Paschalidou, 2022. "The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Santamouris, M. & Yun, Geun Young, 2020. "Recent development and research priorities on cool and super cool materials to mitigate urban heat island," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 792-807.
    8. John A. Paravantis & Panagiotis D. Tasios & Vasileios Dourmas & Georgios Andreakos & Konstantinos Velaoras & Nikoletta Kontoulis & Panagiota Mihalakakou, 2021. "A Regression Analysis of the Carbon Footprint of Megacities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Katlego P. Ncongwane & Joel O. Botai & Venkataraman Sivakumar & Christina M. Botai & Abiodun M. Adeola, 2021. "Characteristics and Long-Term Trends of Heat Stress for South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.
    10. Atefeh Tamaskani Esfehankalateh & Jack Ngarambe & Geun Young Yun, 2021. "Influence of Tree Canopy Coverage and Leaf Area Density on Urban Heat Island Mitigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Andri Pyrgou & Mat Santamouris, 2018. "Increasing Probability of Heat-Related Mortality in a Mediterranean City Due to Urban Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Peng Ren & Xinxin Zhang & Haoyan Liang & Qinglin Meng, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Land Cover Changes on Surface Urban Heat Islands with High-Spatial-Resolution Imagery on a Local Scale: Workflow and Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-24, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo Chen & Amy K Glasmeier & Min Zhang & Yang Shao, 2016. "Urbanization and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China: A Causal Analysis Based on Time Series Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Maria Lourdes Ordoñez Olivo & Zoltán Lakner, 2023. "Shaping the Knowledge Base of Bioeconomy Sectors Development in Latin American and Caribbean Countries: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Pearce, Joshua M. & Johnson, Sara J. & Grant, Gabriel B., 2007. "3D-mapping optimization of embodied energy of transportation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 435-453.
    4. Inga Dailidienė & Inesa Servaitė & Remigijus Dailidė & Erika Vasiliauskienė & Lolita Rapolienė & Ramūnas Povilanskas & Donatas Valiukas, 2023. "Increasing Trends of Heat Waves and Tropical Nights in Coastal Regions (The Case Study of Lithuania Seaside Cities)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Tjaša Pogačar & Zala Žnidaršič & Lučka Kajfež Bogataj & Zalika Črepinšek, 2020. "Steps Towards Comprehensive Heat Communication in the Frame of a Heat Health Warning System in Slovenia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Jorge García Molinos & Ian Donohue, 2014. "Downscaling the non-stationary effect of climate forcing on local-scale dynamics: the importance of environmental filters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 333-346, May.
    7. John A. Paravantis & Panagiotis D. Tasios & Vasileios Dourmas & Georgios Andreakos & Konstantinos Velaoras & Nikoletta Kontoulis & Panagiota Mihalakakou, 2021. "A Regression Analysis of the Carbon Footprint of Megacities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Barbara Vojvodíková & Iva Tichá & Anna Starzewska-Sikorska, 2022. "Implementing Nature-Based Solutions in Urban Spaces in the Context of the Sense of Danger That Citizens May Feel," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, October.
    9. Stefan Muthers & Andreas Matzarakis & Elisabeth Koch, 2010. "Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-13, July.
    10. A. Talha Yalta & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2007. "GRETL 1.6.0 and its numerical accuracy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 849-854.
    11. Srinivasan, Venkatraman & Kumar, Praveen, 2015. "Emergent and divergent resilience behavior in catastrophic shift systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 298(C), pages 87-105.
    12. Yiru Jia & Jifu Liu & Lanlan Guo & Zhifei Deng & Jiaoyang Li & Hao Zheng, 2021. "Locomotion of Slope Geohazards Responding to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Adjacent Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-16, September.
    13. Aatishya Mohanty & Nattavudh Powdthavee & Cheng Keat Tang & Andrew J. Oswald, 2024. "Temperature Variability and Natural Disasters," Papers 2409.14936, arXiv.org.
    14. A. Yalta & A. Yalta, 2010. "Should Economists Use Open Source Software for Doing Research?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 371-394, April.
    15. Campos-González, Jorge & Balcombe, Kelvin, 2024. "The race between education and technology in Chile and its impact on the skill premium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. T. Hlásny & J. Holuša & P. Štěpánek & M. Turčáni & N. Polčák, 2011. "Expected impacts of climate change on forests: Czech Republic as a case study," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(10), pages 422-431.
    17. Wu, X.D. & Ji, Xi & Li, Chaohui & Xia, X.H. & Chen, G.Q., 2019. "Water footprint of thermal power in China: Implications from the high amount of industrial water use by plant infrastructure of coal-fired generation system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 452-461.
    18. Ralph Catalano & Tim Bruckner & Kirk Smith & Katherine Saxton, 2012. "Temperature oscillations may shorten male lifespan via natural selection in utero," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 697-707, February.
    19. Jürgen Junk & Klaus Goergen & Andreas Krein, 2019. "Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures for gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i05).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:606-:d:95708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.