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Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pengjun Zhao

    (New Zealand Centre for Sustainable Cities, University of Otago, 23A Mein Street, Newtown, Wellington 6242, New Zealand)

  • Ralph Chapman

    (School of Geography, Environment, and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, PO BOX 600, Wellington 6140, New Zealand)

  • Edward Randal

    (New Zealand Centre for Sustainable Cities, University of Otago, 23A Mein Street, Newtown, Wellington 6242, New Zealand)

  • Philippa Howden-Chapman

    (New Zealand Centre for Sustainable Cities, University of Otago, 23A Mein Street, Newtown, Wellington 6242, New Zealand)

Abstract

The resilience of cities in response to natural disasters and long-term climate change has emerged as a focus of academic and policy attention. In particular, how to understand the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems is a key issue. This paper introduces an urban model that can be used to evaluate city resilience outcomes under different policy scenarios. The model is the Wellington Integrated Land Use-Transport-Environment Model (WILUTE). It considers the city ( i.e. , Wellington) as a complex system characterized by interactions between a variety of internal urban processes (social, economic and physical) and the natural environment. It is focused on exploring the dynamic relations between human activities (the geographic distribution of housing and employment, infrastructure layout, traffic flows and energy consumption), environmental effects (carbon emissions, influences on local natural and ecological systems) and potential natural disasters (e.g., inundation due to sea level rise and storm events) faced under different policy scenarios. The model gives insights that are potentially useful for policy to enhance the city’s resilience, by modelling outcomes, such as the potential for reduction in transportation energy use, and changes in the vulnerability of the city’s housing stock and transport system to sea level rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengjun Zhao & Ralph Chapman & Edward Randal & Philippa Howden-Chapman, 2013. "Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(7), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:5:y:2013:i:7:p:3202-3223:d:27441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fabio Grazi & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh & Jos N. van Ommeren, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Urban Form, Transport, and Global Warming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 97-122.
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    6. Donghyun Kim & Up Lim, 2016. "Urban Resilience in Climate Change Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, April.
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    11. Joreintje Dingena Mackenbach & Edward Randal & Pengjun Zhao & Philippa Howden-Chapman, 2016. "The Influence of Urban Land-Use and Public Transport Facilities on Active Commuting in Wellington, New Zealand: Active Transport Forecasting Using the WILUTE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, March.
    12. Ziyi Wang & Zengqiao Chen & Cuiping Ma & Ronald Wennersten & Qie Sun, 2022. "Nationwide Evaluation of Urban Energy System Resilience in China Using a Comprehensive Index Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
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    14. Sharifi, Ayyoob & Yamagata, Yoshiki, 2016. "Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1654-1677.
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