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Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Author

Listed:
  • Dexter V. L. Hunt

    (Civil Engineering/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • D. Rachel Lombardi

    (Civil Engineering/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • Stuart Atkinson

    (Center for Water Systems/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK)

  • Austin R. G. Barber

    (The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, School of Public Policy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • Matthew Barnes

    (The Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA14YQ, UK)

  • Christopher T. Boyko

    (Faculty of Arts and Social Science/Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YD, UK)

  • Julie Brown

    (The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, School of Public Policy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • John Bryson

    (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • David Butler

    (Center for Water Systems/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK)

  • Silvio Caputo

    (Department of Sustainable Construction, Coventry University Technology Park, Coventry, CV1 5FB, UK)

  • Maria Caserio

    (Birmingham Institute of Art and Design (BIAD), Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7DX, UK)

  • Richard Coles

    (Birmingham Institute of Art and Design (BIAD), Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7DX, UK)

  • Rachel F. D. Cooper

    (Faculty of Arts and Social Science/Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YD, UK)

  • Raziyeh Farmani

    (Center for Water Systems/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK)

  • Mark Gaterell

    (Department of Sustainable Construction, Coventry University Technology Park, Coventry, CV1 5FB, UK)

  • James Hale

    (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • Chantal Hales

    (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • C. Nicholas Hewitt

    (The Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA14YQ, UK)

  • Lubo Jankovic

    (Birmingham Institute of Art and Design (BIAD), Birmingham City University, Birmingham B4 7DX, UK)

  • I. Jefferson

    (Civil Engineering/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • J. Leach

    (Faculty of Arts and Social Science/Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YD, UK)

  • A. Rob MacKenzie

    (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • Fayyaz Ali Memon

    (Center for Water Systems/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK)

  • Jon P. Sadler

    (School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • Carina Weingaertner

    (The Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, School of Public Policy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

  • J. Duncan Whyatt

    (The Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA14YQ, UK)

  • Christopher D. F. Rogers

    (Civil Engineering/College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B152TT, UK)

Abstract

Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Suggested Citation

  • Dexter V. L. Hunt & D. Rachel Lombardi & Stuart Atkinson & Austin R. G. Barber & Matthew Barnes & Christopher T. Boyko & Julie Brown & John Bryson & David Butler & Silvio Caputo & Maria Caserio & Rich, 2012. "Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-33, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:4:y:2012:i:4:p:740-772:d:17324
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The Future of the Environment: Ecological Economics and Technological Change," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195085747.
    3. Raskin, Paul D., 2008. "World lines: A framework for exploring global pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 461-470, April.
    4. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four futures of Europe," CPB Special Publication 49.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Paul D. Raskin & Christi Electris & Richard A. Rosen, 2010. "The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(8), pages 1-26, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Griewald, Yuliana & Clemens, Gerhard & Kamp, Johannes & Gladun, Elena & Hölzel, Norbert & von Dressler, Hubertus, 2017. "Developing land use scenarios for stakeholder participation in Russia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 264-276.
    3. Bryony M. Bowman & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Chris D. F. Rogers, 2022. "Gazing into the Crystal Ball: A Review of Futures Analysis to Promote Environmental Justice in the UK Water Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Crawford, Megan M., 2019. "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. P. Giovani Palafox-Alcantar & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Chris D. F. Rogers, 2020. "A Hybrid Methodology to Study Stakeholder Cooperation in Circular Economy Waste Management of Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Minkkinen, Matti, 2019. "The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 172-180.
    7. Hewitt, Richard J & Compagnucci, Andrea Baggio & Castellazzi, Marie & Dunford, Rob W. & Harrison, Paula A. & Pedde, Simona & Gimona, Alessandro, 2020. "Impacts and trade-offs of future land use and land cover change in Scotland: spatial simulation modelling of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at regional scales," SocArXiv fc6he, Center for Open Science.
    8. Boschetti, Fabio & Walker, Iain & Price, Jennifer, 2016. "Modelling and attitudes towards the future," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 71-81.
    9. Buckwell, Andrew & Fleming, Christopher & Smart, James & Mackey, Brendan & Ware, Daniel & Hallgren, Willow & Sahin, Oz & Nalau, Johanna, 2018. "Valuing aggregated ecosystem services at a national and regional scale for Vanuatu using a remotely operable, rapid assessment methodology," 2018 Conference (62nd), February 7-9, 2018, Adelaide, Australia 273524, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. Sander Jacobs & Fernando Santos-Martín & Eeva Primmer & Fanny Boeraeve & Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez & Vânia Proença & Martin Schlaepfer & Lluis Brotons & Robert Dunford & Sandra Lavorel & Antoine Guisan , 2022. "Transformative Change Needs Direction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-9, November.
    11. Mohammad S. M. Almulhim & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Chris D. F. Rogers, 2020. "A Resilience and Environmentally Sustainable Assessment Framework (RESAF) for Domestic Building Materials in Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-24, April.
    12. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Dale S. Rothman & Paul Raskin & Kasper Kok & John Robinson & Jill Jäger & Barry Hughes & Paul C. Sutton, 2023. "Global Discontinuity: Time for a Paradigm Shift in Global Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-12, August.
    14. James D. Hale & Thomas A. M. Pugh & Jon P. Sadler & Christopher T. Boyko & Julie Brown & Silvio Caputo & Maria Caserio & Richard Coles & Raziyeh Farmani & Chantal Hales & Russell Horsey & Dexter V. L., 2015. "Delivering a Multi-Functional and Resilient Urban Forest," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    15. Alessandro Fergnani & Mike Jackson, 2019. "Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    16. Fabio Boschetti & Elizabeth A. Fulton & Nicola J. Grigg, 2014. "Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.
    17. Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Anderson, Sharolyn & Sutton, Paul, 2017. "The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 289-301.
    18. Harmáčková, Zuzana V. & Vačkář, David, 2018. "Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PB), pages 134-145.
    19. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    20. Vasilii Erokhin & Tianming Gao & Anna Ivolga, 2020. "Structural Variations in the Composition of Land Funds at Regional Scales across Russia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-39, June.

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