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Turkish Delight – Does Turkey’s accession to the EU bring economic benefits?

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  • Arjan M. Lejour
  • Ruud A. De Mooij

Abstract

We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive. European exports increase by around 20 percent. Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4 percent as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, consumption per capita in Turkey could raise by an additional 9 percent. These benefits would spill over to the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. De Mooij, 2004. "Turkish Delight – Does Turkey’s accession to the EU bring economic benefits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1183, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    2. Gül Ertan Özgüzer, 2009. "Worthy Transfers? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey's Accession to the European Union," 2009 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Christian Dreger & Manuel Artís & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 272, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Arjan Lejour & Andrea Mervar & Gerard Verweij, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Working Papers 0705, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    5. Hüseyin Aytuğ & Merve Mavuş Kütük & Arif Oduncu & Sübidey Togan, 2017. "Twenty Years of the EU-Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 419-431, May.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian T. & Siegel, Stephan, 2013. "The European Union, the Euro, and equity market integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 583-603.
    7. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Harun Ucak, 2011. "Turkey's Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 180-198.
    9. Fritz Breuss, 2007. "Erweiterungs- und Nachbarschaftspolitik der EU," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(8), pages 641-660, August.
    10. Ozgul Bilici & Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2008. "The Determining Role of EU in Turkey's Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 0806, Izmir University of Economics.
    11. Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(4), pages 219-232, November.
    12. Sedat AYBAR, 2017. "Can Turkish And Us Co-Operation In The Black Sea Region Increase Efficiency Gains?," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies, vol. 10(2).
    13. Schukkink, Martijn & Niemann, Arne, 2012. "Portugal and the EU’s Eastern Enlargement: A logic of identity endorsement," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 16, July.
    14. Guisan, M. Carmen, 2005. "Human Capital, Population Growth and Industrial Development in Mexico and Turkey: A Comparative Analysis with Other OECD Countries, 1964-2004," Economic Development 85, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    15. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2005. "Turkish Delight for Some, Cold Turkey for Others?: The Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1550, CESifo.
    16. Gül Ertan Özgüzer & Luca Pensieroso, 2013. "An analysis of Turkey's accession to the European Union," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1380-1405, November.
    17. Harald Badinger & Fritz Breuss, 2011. "The Quantitative Effects of European Post-war Economic Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Kishor, Narayan K. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "What Is Driving Financial Dollarization In Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 816-835, June.
    19. Arjan Lejour & Andrea Mervar & Gerard Verweij, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Working Papers 0705, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    20. Pelkmans, Jacques & Lejour, Arjan & Schrefler, Lorna & Mustilli, Federica & Timini, Jacopo, 2014. "The Impact of TTIP: The underlying economic model and comparisons," CEPS Papers 9710, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    21. Cemal Ozkahraman, 2017. "Failure of Peace Talks between Turkey and the PKK: Victim of Traditional Turkish Policy or of Geopolitical Shifts in the Middle East?," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 4(1), pages 50-66, March.
    22. N. Nergiz Dincer & Ayça Tekin-Koru & Pinar Yaşar, 2018. "Costs of a missing FTA: the case of Turkey and Algeria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 489-505, August.
    23. Ryan H. Murphy, 2016. "Intergovernmental Organisations and Economic Freedom: Wise Technocrats or Black Helicopters?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 145-154, June.
    24. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    25. Nurhan Davutyan & Mert C. Demir, 2004. "Transporting Turkish Exam Takers: A New Use for an Old Model," Working Papers 0401, Economic Research Forum, revised Jan 2004.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; regional economic integration; general equilibrium model; gravity equations; institutional reform; migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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