IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoser/v33y2018ipbp134-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Harmáčková, Zuzana V.
  • Vačkář, David

Abstract

Future provision of ecosystem services (ES) has been increasingly analysed through the scenario approach to address uncertainties and to communicate them to stakeholders and decision-makers. Multiple uncertainty-related aspects of the scenario approach have been discussed in the literature, e.g. how uncertainty is accounted for in ES modelling processes. However, this contribution aims to address another uncertainty-related aspect of scenario analysis, exploring the relationship between the diversity of qualitative scenario narratives on the one hand and the diversity of their respective quantitative outcomes on the other. We build on a local-scale case study and present a semi-quantitative approach to compare scenario narratives and outcomes, based on participatory scenario planning and ES modelling. Our results show that different scenario narratives may lead to similar levels of modelled ES provision, and vice versa, that similar narratives may result in contrasting scenario outcomes. We use these findings to derive uncertainty-related insights, and discuss how these can help formulate landscape management decisions, resulting in desirable ES outcomes across a range of plausible futures. Finally, we discuss the need to apply both spatial and aspatial approaches to compare the convergence of scenario outcomes, and the implications for potential interpretation of the results by stakeholders and decision-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Harmáčková, Zuzana V. & Vačkář, David, 2018. "Future uncertainty in scenarios of ecosystem services provision: Linking differences among narratives and outcomes," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PB), pages 134-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:33:y:2018:i:pb:p:134-145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617306502
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kareiva, Peter & Tallis, Heather & Ricketts, Taylor H. & Daily, Gretchen C. & Polasky, Stephen (ed.), 2011. "Natural Capital: Theory and Practice of Mapping Ecosystem Services," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199589005.
    2. Ruijs, A. & Wossink, A. & Kortelainen, M. & Alkemade, R. & Schulp, C.J.E., 2013. "Trade-off analysis of ecosystem services in Eastern Europe," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 82-94.
    3. Peh, Kelvin S.-H. & Balmford, Andrew & Bradbury, Richard B. & Brown, Claire & Butchart, Stuart H.M. & Hughes, Francine M.R. & Stattersfield, Alison & Thomas, David H.L. & Walpole, Matt & Bayliss, Juli, 2013. "TESSA: A toolkit for rapid assessment of ecosystem services at sites of biodiversity conservation importance," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 51-57.
    4. Hamel, Perrine & Bryant, Benjamin P., 2017. "Uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services analyses: Seven challenges and practical responses," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Semmens, Darius J. & Waage, Sissel & Winthrop, Robert, 2013. "A comparative assessment of decision-support tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 27-39.
    6. Dexter V. L. Hunt & D. Rachel Lombardi & Stuart Atkinson & Austin R. G. Barber & Matthew Barnes & Christopher T. Boyko & Julie Brown & John Bryson & David Butler & Silvio Caputo & Maria Caserio & Rich, 2012. "Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-33, April.
    7. B. Ramos & I. Pastor, 2012. "Mapping the visual landscape quality in Europe using physical attributes," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 56-61.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agudelo, César Augusto Ruiz & Bustos, Sandra Liliana Hurtado & Moreno, Carmen Alicia Parrado, 2020. "Modeling interactions among multiple ecosystem services. A critical review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    2. Cabral, Pedro & Feger, Clément & Levrel, Harold & Chambolle, Mélodie & Basque, Damien, 2016. "Assessing the impact of land-cover changes on ecosystem services: A first step toward integrative planning in Bordeaux, France," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PB), pages 318-327.
    3. Abera, Wuletawu & Tamene, Lulseged & Kassawmar, Tibebu & Mulatu, Kalkidan & Kassa, Habtemariam & Verchot, Louis & Quintero, Marcela, 2021. "Impacts of land use and land cover dynamics on ecosystem services in the Yayo coffee forest biosphere reserve, southwestern Ethiopia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Clément Feger & Laurent Mermet, 2017. "A blueprint towards accounting for the management of ecosystems," Post-Print hal-01930913, HAL.
    5. Posner, Stephen & Verutes, Gregory & Koh, Insu & Denu, Doug & Ricketts, Taylor, 2016. "Global use of ecosystem service models," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 131-141.
    6. Liu, Peng & Jiang, Shiwei & Zhao, Lianjun & Li, Yunxi & Zhang, Pingping & Zhang, Li, 2017. "What are the benefits of strictly protected nature reserves? Rapid assessment of ecosystem service values in Wanglang Nature Reserve, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 70-78.
    7. Staes, Jan & Broekx, Steven & Van Der Biest, Katrien & Vrebos, Dirk & Olivier, Beauchard & De Nocker, Leo & Liekens, Inge & Poelmans, Lien & Verheyen, Kris & Jeroen, Panis & Meire, Patrick, 2017. "Quantification of the potential impact of nature conservation on ecosystem services supply in the Flemish Region: A cascade modelling approach," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 124-137.
    8. Klimanova, O.A. & Bukvareva, E.N. & Yu, Kolbowsky E. & Illarionova, O.A., 2023. "Assessing ecosystem services in Russia: Case studies from four municipal districts," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Accatino, Francesco & Tonda, Alberto & Dross, Camille & Léger, François & Tichit, Muriel, 2019. "Trade-offs and synergies between livestock production and other ecosystem services," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 58-72.
    10. Birch, Jennifer C. & Thapa, Ishana & Balmford, Andrew & Bradbury, Richard B. & Brown, Claire & Butchart, Stuart H.M. & Gurung, Hum & Hughes, Francine M.R. & Mulligan, Mark & Pandeya, Bhopal & Peh, Kel, 2014. "What benefits do community forests provide, and to whom? A rapid assessment of ecosystem services from a Himalayan forest, Nepal," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 118-127.
    11. van den Belt, Marjan & Stevens, Sharon M., 2016. "Transformative agenda, or lost in the translation? A review of top-cited articles in the first four years of Ecosystem Services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 60-72.
    12. Valencia Torres, Angélica & Tiwari, Chetan & Atkinson, Samuel F., 2021. "Progress in ecosystem services research: A guide for scholars and practitioners," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. McInnes, R.J. & Everard, M., 2017. "Rapid Assessment of Wetland Ecosystem Services (RAWES): An example from Colombo, Sri Lanka," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 89-105.
    14. Winthrop, Robert H., 2014. "The strange case of cultural services: Limits of the ecosystem services paradigm," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 208-214.
    15. Davide Geneletti, 2015. "A Conceptual Approach to Promote the Integration of Ecosystem Services in Strategic Environmental Assessment," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(04), pages 1-27, December.
    16. Clément Feger & Laurent Mermet & Emily Mckenzie & Bhaskar Vira, 2017. "Improving Decisions with Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Information," Working Papers hal-01930929, HAL.
    17. Andrea Früh-Müller & Stefan Hotes & Lutz Breuer & Volkmar Wolters & Thomas Koellner, 2016. "Regional Patterns of Ecosystem Services in Cultural Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, June.
    18. Levrel, Harold & Cabral, Pedro & Feger, Clément & Chambolle, Mélodie & Basque, Damien, 2017. "How to overcome the implementation gap in ecosystem services? A user-friendly and inclusive tool for improved urban management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 574-584.
    19. Kolosz, B.W. & Athanasiadis, I.N. & Cadisch, G. & Dawson, T.P. & Giupponi, C. & Honzák, M. & Martinez-Lopez, J. & Marvuglia, A. & Mojtahed, V. & Ogutu, K.B.Z. & Van Delden, H. & Villa, F. & Balbi, S., 2018. "Conceptual advancement of socio-ecological modelling of ecosystem services for re-evaluating Brownfield land," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PA), pages 29-39.
    20. Costanza, Robert & de Groot, Rudolf & Braat, Leon & Kubiszewski, Ida & Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Sutton, Paul & Farber, Steve & Grasso, Monica, 2017. "Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 1-16.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:33:y:2018:i:pb:p:134-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecosystem-services .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.