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Impacts and trade-offs of future land use and land cover change in Scotland: spatial simulation modelling of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at regional scales

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  • Hewitt, Richard J
  • Compagnucci, Andrea Baggio
  • Castellazzi, Marie
  • Dunford, Rob W.
  • Harrison, Paula A.
  • Pedde, Simona
  • Gimona, Alessandro

Abstract

Current estimates suggest that the world is on track for ~3°C of heating relative to pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is likely to bring great disruption to earth systems, leading to increased natural hazard risks, crop failures, civil unrest and population migration. There is, however, a high degree of uncertainty about the impacts that such events may have on land use and ecosystems in individual countries. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) of scenarios like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) offers one way to address this uncertainty, allowing outcomes such as the relative land cover under food production or forestry to be compared for each scenario. However, global and continental-scale IAMs need to be complemented by landscape scale spatial modelling to inform national and regional policy making. In this paper, we demonstrate impacts and trade-offs of future land cover change in Scotland, a UK region with a high degree of political autonomy, using downscaled SSPs from Europe to the national and finally the regional level. Our methods integrate participatory knowledge co-construction approaches with land-use modelling. Firstly, a stakeholder workshop held in November 2018 led to the development of detailed narratives for 5 UK SSPs. Two contrasting UK SSPs, SSP1 (Sustainability), and SSP5 (Fossil-Fuelled Development) were then adapted to the case of Scotland and simulated to the year 2040 using a land use change model (APoLUS). Land use demands for each scenario were quantified based on historical tendencies, narrative information derived from the workshop, and future Scottish Government targets. Results highlight trade-offs between forest cover, grasslands, natural areas including marginal peatlands important for carbon sequestration, and cropland for food production and the drinks industry. We discuss these preliminary findings, highlight key areas of uncertainty and present pathways for future work.

Suggested Citation

  • Hewitt, Richard J & Compagnucci, Andrea Baggio & Castellazzi, Marie & Dunford, Rob W. & Harrison, Paula A. & Pedde, Simona & Gimona, Alessandro, 2020. "Impacts and trade-offs of future land use and land cover change in Scotland: spatial simulation modelling of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at regional scales," SocArXiv fc6he, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:fc6he
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fc6he
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dexter V. L. Hunt & D. Rachel Lombardi & Stuart Atkinson & Austin R. G. Barber & Matthew Barnes & Christopher T. Boyko & Julie Brown & John Bryson & David Butler & Silvio Caputo & Maria Caserio & Rich, 2012. "Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-33, April.
    2. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    5. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyunkyo Yu & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2023. "Enhancing Urban Heating Systems Planning through Spatially Explicit Participatory Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-26, May.

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